Edinburgh Research Group in Optimization – seminar with Henrik Madsen
On Monday, January 13, 2020, Professor Henrik Madsen visits Edinburgh Research Group in Optimization for a seminar talk: Accelerating the Green Transition Using Energy Systems Integration and Data-Intelligence
The energy system needs
to undertake a fundamental change from a system where production follows demand
to a system where the demand follows the production provided by fluctuating
renewable energy sources. This talk describes methodologies for accelerating
the green transition using AI, big data analytics, grey-box models, IoT, Edge
and Cloud Computing.
First of all we shall
focus on methods for characterizing and enabling the energy flexibility at the
prosumer level, ie. at buildings, supermarkets, wastewater treatment plants,
etc.
Secondly we will
describe a framework, called the Smart-Energy Operating-System, for using this
flexibility for controlling the power load in integrated energy systems.
Furthermore, this
framework contains a set of methodologies which can be used for providing ancillary
services (like frequency control, voltage control, and congestion management)
for power networks with a large penetration of wind and solar power.
The set of methodologies is based on grey-box modeling, forecasting, optimization and control for integrated (power, gas, thermal) energy systems. We will demonstrate that by carefully selecting the cost function associated with the optimal controllers, the system can ensure energy, cost and emission efficiency.
Consequently, by using
online-predicted values of the CO2 emission of the related power production,
the framework provides an AI-based method to accelerate the transition to a
fossil-free society.
Henrik Madsen
Edinburgh Research Group in Optimization – seminar with Henrik Madsen Monday, January 13, 2020 Time: 1pm – 2pm Room 6206 – James Clerk Maxwell Building, Edinburgh EH9 3JZ, UK
New Year’s greeting from Henrik Madsen, Professor at DTU Compute, Project Manager at CITIES and Center Manager for the Cities Innovation Center.
The New Year announces
the start of a decade of green transition, and the 2020s will be crucial to the
future climate on Earth. In Denmark, we have got the Climate Act (Klimaloven) and
a goal of 70 per cent reduction in 2030, and the European Commission has
announced the Green Deal. So now there is serious action behind the words so
that concrete solutions are put into use.
Fortunately, Denmark’s
largest smart energy and smart city research project, CITIES – supported by the
Innovation Fund Denmark, shows that there are already many tools on the shelves
that give hope that the green transition will succeed. And that it doesn’t have
to be that hard.
CITIES is a research
project. Here, one year before the project ends, we are pleased that we have
already published 110 scientific papers. It is far more than the originally
promised 30-40 articles. It is well worth noting research results published in
peer-review magazines. This shows, I believe, that there has been a need for
research in the field of smart energy systems because we do not get results in
scientific journals if the research tells something that is well known and
tested. CITIES has been and is the leader with the new knowledge.
When we talk about crucial
new CITIES knowledge that is important for the conversion from fossil fuels to
renewable energy, ‘flexibility’ is at the top.
The energy production
of the future will fluctuate as the wind blows and the sun shines. Consumers
need to adapt to production, as opposed to today just turning coal and gas up
and down in line with consumer needs. Consumer flexibility in the future must
ensure a balance between production and consumption.
Before CITIES got
started, all previous projects showed that there was no or only very low
flexibility. But they had looked isolated into, for example, the grid. That was
not the right way to study the problem. We can see that there is a lot of
flexibility when we focus on the sectoral connection and use IT tools to
control the interaction between electricity, heat, gas, etc. It shows many of
our demo projects.
At CITIES, we have
often connected digitization solutions to the technological solutions that
partners such as Grundfos and Danfoss already have, to get the
flexibility.
For example, we have
seen that today we can save 15-20 per cent in CO2 emissions in some of the demo
projects through IT management, so we use electricity and heat up when there is
plenty of wind turbine power in the electricity grid and on the other hand save
electricity when it comes from fossil fuels.
It is just one of 30-40
different CITIES solutions. In addition, we have developed low-temperature
technologies in district heating, technologies for operating optimization of
the temperature in district heating plants, technologies for operating
optimization of wastewater treatment plants, heating of holiday cottages and
for controlling the grid.
For example, a report
prepared by Damvad for Danish District Heating shows that Denmark will be able
to save DKK 800 million annually by optimizing and lowering the flow
temperature in district heating systems using IT and data-intelligent solutions
developed through CITIES.
We promised savings and
CO2 reductions. Today we have tools and knowledge that the world did not have
as we embarked on how to get flexibility and accelerate the green transition.
This is often done by building on existing solutions from Danish companies, and
therefore CITIES solutions lead to an acceleration of the green transition
through green growth; including more jobs, increased revenue and exports.
This is one of the
things we will be presenting at the closing conference for CITIES on November 9
and 10, 2020. Please put the date in your calendar right away!
When CITIES started
back in 2014, many talked about ‘smart city’. But there were no tools available.
Today we have the tools and the municipalities are coming along: CITIES shows
that there is hope for the green transition.
However, our research
also shows that we need changing framework conditions and taxes. The existing
framework conditions are a barrier to the green transition – a barrier to the
solutions that ensure the green transition and the possibility of reaching, for
example, the Danish 70-2030 target.
In CITIES we have the
solutions, but it is the politicians who must now create the basis for Denmark
– through e.g. the new digitization centre for smart energy systems ‘Center
Denmark’ – to show the way to a quick and efficient green transition.
Denmark is lagging
behind because the politicians will not address the framework conditions. A report released by the European Commission
just before Christmas confirms that.
In Denmark, there is
broad political agreement on the ambitious target of a 70 per cent reduction in
greenhouse gases by 2030. This year the government will spend more than DKK 1.5
billion on green research. In order to really benefit it requires the right
framework conditions.
The energy agreement from 2018 and a number of committees have highlighted the need for new framework conditions, but nothing has happened. CITIES has in a collaboration between industry, universities, SMEs and people focused on innovation developed and proposed a structure for new framework conditions. We hope that we will get some framework conditions as soon as possible that, unlike the current ones, can promote the green transition – accompanied by green growth.
In 2014, CITIES
published a brochure entitled: Could we be 100% fossil-free tomorrow?
The answer was – and is
– yes! Maybe not tomorrow. In CITIES we don’t think it is that hard. We just
need to be smarter than today and use intelligent solutions – and stop clinging
to outdated framework conditions.
Varmeproduktionen fra køleanlæg i supermarkeder kan let genbruges internt og ledes ud i fjernvarmenettet, viser projektet Super Supermarkets med bl.a. CITIES-partnere. Gratis kogebog og to beregningsmetoder kan hjælpe supermarkeder, der vil i gang. Og lovændring vil gøre det endnu mere attraktivt.
—
Efter mange års tøven behandler Folketinget lige nu et lovforslag, der skal gøre det rentabelt at udnytte overskudsvarme på nye måder.
På sigt betyder det, at supermarkeder vil kunne udnytte
varmeproduktionen fra køleanlægget både til opvarmning internt i supermarkedet
og sælge (rest)varmen til det lokale fjernvarmeselskab. Varme, der for omkring
95 procent af tilfældene i dag går til spilde – både i Danmark og ude i verden.
“Perspektivet er stort. Genvinding af varmen betyder også, at kølevarerne i butikken belaster klimaet mindre. Man kan fristes til i denne søde juletid at sige, at udnyttelsen af overskudsvarmen vil gøre juleanden mere grøn, når den er slagtet,” fortæller Torben Funder-Kristensen, chef for PA i Danfoss Cooling, der er partner i CITIES.
“Perspektivet er stort. Genvinding af varmen betyder også, at kølevarerne i butikken belaster klimaet mindre. Man kan fristes til i denne søde juletid at sige, at udnyttelsen af overskudsvarmen vil gøre juleanden mere grøn, når den er slagtet.”
Torben Funder-Kristensen, chef for PA i Danfoss Cooling, der er partner i CITIES.
Kogebog og beregningsmodeller
CITIES arbejder i forvejen med energioptimering og data i supermarkeder, og i relation til CITIES har Danfoss sammen med flere andre CITIES-partnere og eksterne partnere netop afsluttet projektet Super Supermarkets, hvor man har testet ovenstående udnyttelse af overskudsvarmen.
Erfaringerne i projektet er så gode, at det er mundet ud i en kogebog for, hvordan supermarkeder kan gribe det an fra a til z, hvis de vil i gang – samt to beregningsmetoder, der kan vise, om det kan betale sig at installere et anlæg, så man udnytter overskudvarmen.
Det koster selvfølgelig penge at installere anlæg, der gør
det muligt at udnytte overskudsvarmen. Men erfaringerne viser, at anlæggene vil
være tilbagebetalt inden for tre år.
“Der blæser nye vinde over Danmark med en klimalov, der skal sikre, at Danmark har reduceret udledningen af drivhusgasser som CO2 med 70 procent i 2030 i forhold til 1990-tal. Derfor gælder det om at få fat i alt det, som vi kan få fat i, som fx overskudsvarmen i supermarkeder,” siger projektleder Lotte Gramkow fra CLEAN.
“Og det kan gøres enkelt. Vi har de tekniske løsninger. Vi har masser af fjernvarme i Danmark. Så det giver rigtig god mening at lade tingene gå hånd i hånd,” siger hun.
Artiklen fortsætter under grafikken
Grafik fra Super Supermarkets
Forskning
der kan bruges af supermarkeder globalt
I Danmark giver det mening at tænke fjernvarmenettet ind,
fordi fjernvarme er så udbredt. Men også i områder uden fjernvarme giver det mere mening at bruge overskudsvarmen
internt som opvarmning i supermarkederne.
“Vi ved, at EU vil prioritere fjernvarmen langt mere i fremtiden simpelthen, fordi det er meget effektivt. Op til 50 % af EU’s varme skal leveres via fjernvarmen, og det er en kæmpe mulighed for de decentrale store varmepumper og supermarkedsanlæg,” siger Torben Funder-Kristensen.
Alternativt kan overskudsvarmen gå til en varmepumpe i nærområdet i forbindelse med et slags energifælleskab fx industrisymbiose.
“Vi ved, at EU vil prioritere fjernvarmen langt mere i fremtiden simpelthen, fordi det er meget effektivt. Op til 50 % af EU’s varme skal leveres via fjernvarmen, og det er en kæmpe mulighed for de decentrale store varmepumper og supermarkedsanlæg.”
Torben Funder-Kristensen, chef for PA i Danfoss Cooling, der er partner i CITIES.
“I kroner og øre er det svært at give et præcist tal for, hvor stor gevinsten er, for det handler om butikkens størrelse og hvor effektivt køleanlægget kører i forvejen. Men en butik kan sagtens have varmeudgifter for 150.000 kroner, og den udgift slipper man for, hvis man udnytter overskudsvarmen internt,” siger Torben Funder-Kristensen.
Det har man fx set i et andet forsøg med et varmegenvindingsanlæg fra Danfoss i Superbrugsen i Augustenborg på Als. Anlægget betyder, at overskudsvarmen nu både varmer selve butikken op og sørger for varme til rengøring af butikkens slagterafdeling. Desuden leverer butikken varme til fjernvarmenettet svarende til varmeforbruget i cirka 15 standardhuse på årsbasis.
Ifølge Danfoss har det givet en besparelse på el og varme på cirka 90.000 kroner på årsbasis for butikken.
Masser
af varme fra de kraftigt dimensionerede køleanlæg
Der produceres overskudsvarme i mange typer erhverv. Men lige netop supermarkeder er interessante i den sammenhæng.
“Der blæser nye vinde over Danmark med en klimalov, der skal sikre, at Danmark har reduceret udledningen af drivhusgasser som CO2 med 70 procent i 2030 i forhold til 1990-tal. Derfor gælder det om at få fat i alt det, som vi kan få fat i, som fx overskudsvarmen i supermarkeder.”
Projektleder Lotte Gramkow fra CLEAN.
I dag er supermarkedernes køleanlæg kraftigt dimensioneret, fordi man vil være sikker på at kunne holde fødevarerne kolde selv på de varmeste sommerdage.
Køleanlægget fungerer ligesom køleskabet hjemme, der har en varm og en kold side. Når man køler luften ned, tager man energien ud af luften. Energi kan ikke bare forsvinde, så i stedet havner det ofte på taget af supermarkedet. Samtidig varmer supermarkederne deres butik op med anden varme, fx naturgas.
Det optimale vil derfor være, at supermarkedet selv udnytter
varmen til opvarmning af butikken og så sælger resten af varmen til
fjernvarmeselskabet til en pris, de har forhandlet.
“Vi synes, at supermarkeder er et godt sted at høste overskudsvarme, fordi det måske er knap så kompliceret, som hvis man går ud i industrien og skal ind i industriproces fx med meget højere temperaturer. Her er det lettere at styre processerne,” siger Lotte Gramkow.
“Samtidig ligner kølesystemerne hinanden, uanset om det er i Coop-supermarkeder eller Salling Group-supermarkeder. Og eftersom der cirka er 2700 supermarkeder i Danmark, kan de udvalgte være rollemodeller,” mener hun.
Sådanne foregangsbutikker er der brug for, for det er svært
for supermarkederne at gå ind på ’markedet’ for overskudsvarme, eftersom deres
kernekompetence er at sælge varer – ikke overskudsvarme til fjernvarmenet.
Ny
lovgivning på vej
I Super Supermarkets har man testet metoden i tre
Coop-butikker og sammen med de tre lokale fjernvarmeselskaber i Kerteminde og
Otterup på Fyn samt i Bjerringbro i Jylland.
Partnerne i Super Supermarkets mener, at den nye lov gør
beskatningen af brugen af overskudsvarmen fornuftig, forklarer Torben
Funder-Kristensen:
“Hidtil har det været dyrt at udnytte overskudsvarmen internt i virksomheden, fordi strømmen brugt i køleanlægget kører uden afgifter som processtrøm, mens der så er afgifter på varmen, hvis man vil udnytte den selv. Nu bliver afgifterne justeret, så man betragter alt varme som lavet af en varmepumpe med en COP på 3. “
“Det vil sige, at varmen divideret med 3 svarer til den strøm, som der skal svares varmepumpe-elafgift af. Til gengæld skal man ikke betale varmeafgift længere, og man kan køre sit anlæg optimalt i forhold til at producere varme og køle på samme tid. Så kan butikken få det bedste energiøkonomiske output anlægget,” siger han.
Det ventes, at loven bliver fulgt op af en anden lov, der
også vil øge interessen hos supermarkeder for at sælge overskudsvarmen til fjernvarmenettet.
I dag bliver alle – både store og små virksomheder –
betragtet som et varmeværk. Det betyder, at små supermarkeder vil skulle lave
specialregnskaber og foretage en priseftervisning, der viser, at salgsprisen
for varmen er korrekt prisfastsat. Det er alt for kompliceret og resultatet er, at man ikke bruger
denne mulighed i stor udstrækning endnu
Derfor er der flere gange været lagt op til at lave en
minimumsgrænse for, hvor stort supermarkedet eller andre virksomheder skal
være, før de skal lave specialregnskaber for salg af overskudsvarme. Ved det nuværende
lovforslag er der ikke indført en minimumsgrænse.
“Vi håber godt nok, at vi er blevet hørt, og at der kommer en klar minimumsgrænse for fritagelse for priseftervisning og pris regulering for de små bidragsydere. Vi har 2700 supermarkeder i Danmark og selv om de ikke alle har muligheden i dag, så skal dem, som kan levere varme, have muligheden ved at forhandle en fornuftig pris med fjernvarmen – og så skal der ikke mere kompleksitet i det,” siger Torben Funder-Kristensen.
Fakta
om Super Supermarkets
Projektet har fået 2,9 millioner kroner i støtte fra det Energiteknologiske Udviklings- og Demonstrationsprogram, EUDP.
13 partnere: Danfoss A/S, COOP A.M.B.A., Dansk Fjernvarme (DFF), OK A.M.B.A., Teknologisk Institut (TI), Ivar Lykke Kristensen (ILK), Dansk Fjernvarmes Projektselskab (DFP), AK-Centralen (AK-C), KTH Royal Institute of Technology Stockholm (KTH), Gudenådalens Energiselskab, Fjernvarme Fyn, Kerteminde Forsyning, CLEAN (projektkoordinator)
Tre COOP supermarkeder i Ottestrup, Kerteminde og Bjerringbro har deltaget.
Der er i dag etableret varmegenvindingsanlæg ved cirka 150 butikker. Under 100 butikker leverer i dag overskudsvarme til fjernvarmenettet.
Partnerne i Super Supermarkets anslår, at der er potentiale for at udnytte overskudsvarmen internt og i fjernvarmenettet ved 2700 supermarkeder i Danmark.
Projektet har udarbejdet en kogebog, som kan hjælpe butikker med at komme i gang. Samtidigt har man udarbejdet to beregningsmodeller, som butikker kan bruge til at undersøge, om det kan svare sig at udnytte overskudsvarmen. Alle tre værktøjer ligger frit tilgængeligt på projektets hjemmeside.
Kilde: Super Supermarkets
OMCITIES – Center for IT Intelligente Energi Systemer
Danmark har et mål om et energisystem, der kører 100% på
vedvarende energi i 2050 og en 70 procent reduktion af drivhusgasser i 2030.
Danmarks største smart city-projekt, CITIES, forsker i løsninger, der støtter
overgangen fra fossile brændstoffer til et moderne samfund, tilpasset
bæredygtige energisystemer.
CITIES dækker over en bred vifte af
forskningsaktiviteter, der letter fleksibiliteten i hele energisystemet ved at
forske i effektive, integrerede og intelligent energiløsninger. Aktiviteterne i
CITIES dækker alle aspekter af energisystemet, herunder el, gas,
fjernvarme/køling og biomasse. Og vigtigst af alt forsker vi i metoder, der
bygger på kunstig intelligens (AI) til at analysere store mængder data, så vi
kan forudsige, kontrollere og optimere samspillet mellem energiformerne.
I CITIES medvirker otte danske og svenske byer og
kommuner, 24 danske og svenske industrielle partnere samt 15 internationale
videns-institutioner fra EU, Kina og USA. Projektet støttes af
Innovationsfonden.
The use of building
data is one of the paths to the green transition, and data and digitization can
reduce costs and create new potentials for efficiency improvements. At the same
time, there are already good solutions in the market.
These were the main conclusions when the Danish Energy Agency, during the C40 World Mayors Summit in Copenhagen in October, held a workshop with Energy Forum, Intelligent Energi and Gate 21 on the use of building data.
The Danish Energy Agency is working on creating a platform – an energy and building atlas that will promote data-based knowledge of buildings. At the workshop, up to 100 participants from universities, interest groups, building owners such as housing companies and municipalities, as well as utilities, gave their views on the platform.
Centre leader at CITIES Professor Henrik Madsen was invited to talk about some of the solutions that have been developed through CITIES and other related smart city projects to collect and analyze just building data.
“I consider the ideas of a new Energiatlas, as suggested by the Danish Energy Agency, as a very interesting step forward”, he says.
“I believe that we will be able to see a lot of synergy between Center Denmark, which will provide methods related to real-time data, and the Energiatlas, which could contain information on the actual energy performance of buildings, as obtained digitally by the processing of real-time data at Center Denmark”, he says.
Use AI as an X-ray
Henrik Madsen’s message at the workshop and in general is that it is important to move away from table-based methods for energy savings and energy renovations and over to evidence-based methods.
Table-based means
that, for example, energy labels are drawn up of dwellings that are based on
drawings of the house rather than on data based on reality.
Henrik Madsen and his
DTU colleagues and partners for smart city projects have developed and
demonstrated methods that work with a kind of X-ray vision with the help of AI.
Here, algorithms chew through data for a building and see how it performs – how
good the climate screen is – (e.g., the insulation of the exterior wall, doors
and windows) and at the same time can sort the energy consumption from the way
the occupants or users act.
FED – Flexibility Energy Denmark
At the workshop,
Henrik Madsen also mentioned the new national research and testing centre for
energy technologies for green transition Center Denmark, which also contains a
data lake.
Through the associated project, FED – Flexibility Energy Denmark – the partners (including many partners from CITIES) collect data through living labs and send data into the data lake.
The researchers at
the FED can then analyze data and develop solutions that companies can work on
for actual products. Through the FED, you will see how you can create
flexibility in the electricity grid, change consumption habits and store energy
virtually. For example, through district heating or by heating swimming pools
at times when there is plenty of wind turbine power in the grid and where there
is little electricity consumption in society in general.
At the workshop of
the Danish Energy Agency, Henrik Madsen also pointed out the need to change the
framework conditions to promote the green transition.
Today, there is virtually no economic reason to shift consumption to periods when there is excess green energy in the electricity grid. CITIES has taken up this issue in a note ‘Energiafgifter for fremtiden’ received by both the Danish Energy Agency and the Danish Parliament.
Through CITIES, district heating companies will continue to work with the ideas based on concrete challenges and thoughts of increased digitalisation.
Danish:
Fjernvarme-workshop giver tre ideer til brug af målinger og data Gennem CITIES vil fjernevarmeselskaber arbejde videre med ideer, der tager afsat i konkrete udfordringer og tanker om øget digitalisering.
—
En lille flok fjernvarmefolk fra Fjernvarme Fyn, Hvide Sande Fjernvarme, HOFOR, Aarhus Maskinmesterskole og Grøn Energi/Dansk Fjernvarme stak for nyligt hovederne sammen for at udtænke forslag til at skabe værdi i fjernvarmesystemerne ved hjælp af målinger og data.
Forslagene afspejlede både kvantitative løsninger, som kan spare energi og kvalitative løsninger, der fokuserer på at uddanne fremtidens værdikæde til at bruge databaserede input.
Fjernvarmefolkenes hverdag er
vidt forskellig. Alligevel fandt de frem til tre konkrete ideer, som nu vil blive
konkretiseret for at se om ét eller flere af dem kan udføres inden for rammerne
af CITIES-projektet.
Ideerne kredser om, hvordan data kan bruges ved indregulering af anlæg, hvordan data kan kobles sammen med andre data, og endelig hvordan man let kan overvåge data live.
Adam Brun, forretningsudvikler på Aarhus Maskinmesterskole, tidligere AffaldVarme Aarhus, ridser ideerne op. Foto: Hanne Kokkegård
Data bruges ikke optimalt i dag
Fjernvarmeselskaberne har
naturligvis gang i digitaliseringen, men de bruger hverken løsningerne eller
data optimalt, erkendte fjernvarmefolkene.
Samtidig bruges data på
forskellige måder rundt om i landet, fordi behovene ofte er vidt forskellige om
man er et stort fjernvarmeselskab eller et mindre. Samtidig er der en tradition
for nogle steder, at selve driften mest køres via sund fornuft, regneark og
erfaring.
Netop derfor var workshoppen i
Fjernvarmens Hus tænkt som helt uformel, og der var gode og livlige
diskussioner, siger chefanalytiker i Grøn Energi, Nina Detlefsen, der var
arrangør af workshoppen:
“Fordelen ved at holde en workshop med få deltagere, som virkelig er interesseret i emnet er, at disse deltagere får plads til at fortælle om deres udfordringer. Når projekter og ideer kommer med afsæt i deres egne meget jordnære problemer, tager deltagerne typiske mere ejerskab efterfølgende.”
“Netop dette ejerskab for opgaverne er vigtig, for at de også vil prioritere ressourcer, og at der faktisk sker noget fysisk på værket,” uddyber hun.
Når man har lagt sig fast på,
hvilke af de tre ideer, som man går videre med, vil projekterne være åbne for alle CITIES-partnerne.
Øverst fra venstre Adam Brun, forretningsudvikler på Aarhus Maskinmesterskole tidl. AffaldVarme Aarhus; Nina Detlefsen, chefanalytiker hos Grøn Energi;
plan- og projektdirektør hos Fjernvarme Fyn Peer Andersen. Nederste række fra venstre: Per Sieverts Nielsen, seniorforsker ved DTU Management; Christian Holmstedt Hansen, analytiker hos Grøn Energi; Christian Holmstedt Hansen, analytiker hos Grøn Energi; Martin Halkjær Kristensen, driftsleder hos Hvide Sande Fjernvarme samt Kristian Honoré, energiplanlægger hos HOFOR. Foto: Hanne Kokkegård
ProccS.org is a tool for simulating occupancy profiles for private households. The application creates occupancy profiles for bathroom, kitchen, living room and bedrooms. The profiles can be downloaded in csv-format. The underlying model is based on a inhomogeneous Markov chain. It was trained on time-use data of Danish households from 2008/2009.
Sebastian Wolf has developed the online-tool ProccS during his PhD.
The government’s more ambitious targets for CO2 reductions require new technologies, but also a new tax structure that will serve as an incentive to use types of energy with the lowest CO2 emissions.
For
technology, the green transition cannot do without the right policy – and vice
versa. This is the message in the presentation that Professor Henrik Madsen,
DTU Compute, will give at Ajour 2019 – the Danish Engineers´ Association’s annual trade fair. (Maskinmesternes
Forening.)
In
Ajourmagasinet Henrik Madsen tells more about his upcoming presentation
‘Intelligent energy – an acceleration of the green transition through
digitalisation’. The presentation is based, among other things, on a memo that
a CITIES task force has recently send to the Danish Energy Agency and
politicians on how dynamic CO2 taxes can support the green
transition.
GATE21 AND HOFOR will be leading a demonstration on self-learning data-intelligent district heating systems which is built on the tools developed in CITIES
The IDASC
project aims to collect and disseminate experiences about opportunities
surrounding the self-learning systems.
As part of
the project, IDASC will test different models for using more real-time data in
district heating, meaning senior executives, decision-makers and politicians
involved in district heating can be given the best possible conditions for
assessing its potential. This includes technical advantages and economic
savings, as well as its CO2 reduction potential.
HOFOR –
Greater Copenhagen Utility is the test partner for the project, testing a
district heating network serving 25 apartment buildings. Here, a method will be
developed to use smart meters from district heating customers for data-driven
temperature optimization. The trial period will begin with the start of the
2019 heating season.
Henrik Madsen, center director of CITIES and professor
at DTU Compute, is invited to Rio de Janeiro in Brazil from 4-5 July 2020 to hold:
Renewable Energy Forecasting Summer School.
The
IIF Summer School is a two-day course which provides in-depth analysis of a
cutting edge topic in forecasting from one of the International Symposium on
Forecasting (ISF) invited speakers. The Summer School typically shares the same
venue as the ISF.
Renewable Energy
Forecasting – Theory and Practice
Today, on average, roughly 50 per cent of the electricity in Denmark is generated as wind and solar power. Wind power alone accounts for around 44 per cent of the electricity load, but this is highly fluctuating. Denmark has hours with almost no wind but also experiences periods with up to 140 per cent of the electricity load. Therefore, forecasting is crucial in order to operate the energy systems including the electricity grid. Prof. Madsen and his collaborators are responsible for the methods used, eg. in Denmark, by both transmission system operators and low voltage operators.
Through a combination of lectures and lab sessions, this course will provide an introduction to methods and tools used for forecasting wind and solar power generation. We will touch upon how the forecasts are used in the daily operation of the power system. For the lab session, R software packages will be used. The topics covered are:
Point forecasts and probabilistic forecasts
Use of meteorological (MET) forecasts
Simple parametric models for forecasting (Box-Jenkins, SARIMA, Holt-Winter, Neural Networks, AI, Hidden Markov, Regime based models)
Non- and Semi-parametric methods (Kernel, Spline, Local polynomial, and Varying coefficient based methods)
State spaces models in discrete and continuous time
Multivariate probabilistic forecasting
Methods for forecast evaluation
Spatio-temporal forecasting
Forecasting hierarchies
Combined forecasting (eg. for use of several MET providers)
Down- and upscaling
Adaptive forecasting
Generating forecasts for optimal decision making
Tools for wind and solar power forecasting
The course will also provide options for
the best tool depending on the penetration level of the renewables and the
setting in general.
The CITIES project had its own track at the conference 100% Climate Neutrality in Sonderborg, Denmark on October 2019. Here you can listen to the videos and follow the presentations in the pdf.
