New tool for simulating occupancy profiles for private households

ProccS.org is a tool for simulating occupancy profiles for private households. The application creates occupancy profiles for bathroom, kitchen, living room and bedrooms. The profiles can be downloaded in csv-format. The underlying model is based on a inhomogeneous Markov chain. It was trained on time-use data of Danish households from 2008/2009.

Sebastian Wolf has developed the online-tool ProccS during his PhD.

Ajour 2019: Energy taxes must reflect CO2 emissions

The government’s more ambitious targets for CO2 reductions require new technologies, but also a new tax structure that will serve as an incentive to use types of energy with the lowest CO2 emissions.

For technology, the green transition cannot do without the right policy – and vice versa. This is the message in the presentation that Professor Henrik Madsen, DTU Compute, will give at Ajour 2019 – the Danish Engineers´ Association’s annual trade fair. (Maskinmesternes Forening.)

In Ajourmagasinet Henrik Madsen tells more about his upcoming presentation ‘Intelligent energy – an acceleration of the green transition through digitalisation’. The presentation is based, among other things, on a memo that a CITIES task force has recently send to the Danish Energy Agency and politicians on how dynamic CO2 taxes can support the green transition.

Read the article (Danish version) in Ajourmagasinet here.

Read the note ‘Energy Taxes for the Future’ (Danish version) here

Here you can read more about Ajour 2019, which takes place on Thursday, November 28 and Friday, November 29 at the Odense Congress Center.

Henrik Madsen, Professor at DTU Compute and centre Director of CITIES Photo: Hanne Kokkegård

CAN DISTRICT HEATING BE SELF-LEARNING?

GATE21 AND HOFOR will be leading a demonstration on self-learning data-intelligent district heating systems which is built on the tools developed in CITIES

The IDASC project aims to collect and disseminate experiences about opportunities surrounding the self-learning systems.

As part of the project, IDASC will test different models for using more real-time data in district heating, meaning senior executives, decision-makers and politicians involved in district heating can be given the best possible conditions for assessing its potential. This includes technical advantages and economic savings, as well as its CO2 reduction potential.

HOFOR – Greater Copenhagen Utility is the test partner for the project, testing a district heating network serving 25 apartment buildings. Here, a method will be developed to use smart meters from district heating customers for data-driven temperature optimization. The trial period will begin with the start of the 2019 heating season.

Read more in the pdf

Renewable Energy Forecasting Summer School, Rio de Janeiro, July 2020

Henrik Madsen, center director of CITIES and professor at DTU Compute, is invited to Rio de Janeiro in Brazil from 4-5 July 2020 to hold: Renewable Energy Forecasting Summer School.

The IIF Summer School is a two-day course which provides in-depth analysis of a cutting edge topic in forecasting from one of the International Symposium on Forecasting (ISF) invited speakers. The Summer School typically shares the same venue as the ISF.

Renewable Energy Forecasting – Theory and Practice

Today, on average, roughly 50 per cent of the electricity in Denmark is generated as wind and solar power. Wind power alone accounts for around 44 per cent of the electricity load, but this is highly fluctuating. Denmark has hours with almost no wind but also experiences periods with up to 140 per cent of the electricity load. Therefore, forecasting is crucial in order to operate the energy systems including the electricity grid. Prof. Madsen and his collaborators are responsible for the methods used, eg. in Denmark, by both transmission system operators and low voltage operators.

Through a combination of lectures and lab sessions, this course will provide an introduction to methods and tools used for forecasting wind and solar power generation. We will touch upon how the forecasts are used in the daily operation of the power system. For the lab session, R software packages will be used. The topics covered are:

  • Point forecasts and probabilistic forecasts
  • Use of meteorological (MET) forecasts
  • Simple parametric models for forecasting (Box-Jenkins, SARIMA, Holt-Winter, Neural Networks, AI, Hidden Markov, Regime based models)
  • Non- and Semi-parametric methods (Kernel, Spline, Local polynomial, and Varying coefficient based methods)
  • State spaces models in discrete and continuous time
  • Multivariate probabilistic forecasting
  • Methods for forecast evaluation
  • Spatio-temporal forecasting
  • Forecasting hierarchies
  • Combined forecasting (eg. for use of several MET providers)
  • Down- and upscaling
  • Adaptive forecasting
  • Generating forecasts for optimal decision making
  • Tools for wind and solar power forecasting

The course will also provide options for the best tool depending on the penetration level of the renewables and the setting in general.

Interested in attending Henrik Madsen’s summer school? Read more about the course in Rio here.

The power lines meander in the favela Vidigal on a hillside in Rio de Janeiro. Photo: Hanne Kokkegård

Documents from 100% CLIMATE NEUTRALITY, Sonderborg – videos and pdf

The CITIES project had its own track at the conference 100% Climate Neutrality in Sonderborg, Denmark on October 2019. Here you can listen to the videos and follow the presentations in the pdf.

Programme

VIDEO: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sy2s1yaRU0Q

PDF: Henrik Madsen, DTU:​ Introduction to CITIES AGM – update

VIDEO: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MX8F8GW7Ink

PDF:  Annemie Wyckmans, NTNU: ​CityxChange

VIDEO: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BVHf-xa1DBI

PDF: Kristina Bozhkova, Project Zero: ​SmartEnCity

VIDEO: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Me5MKpu4IS0

PDF: Louise Krog Jensen, AAU:​ Challenges and Opportunities of Implementing 100% Renewable Energy in Cities

VIDEO: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aFxpBrdesaA

PDF: Anders Andersen, EMD:​ ​Optimization of private wire operation of wind production and district energy in Hvide Sande

VIDEO: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6zySv_et5M0

PDF: Nina Detlefsen, DFF:​ District heating – the key to a smart integrated energy system

VIDEO: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BdlumhIHdt4&t=3s

PDF: Firming Renewable Power with Demand Response:- An End-to-end Aggregator Business Model

VIDEO: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yH1FtHWqTMw&t=1S

PDF: John Bagterp Jørgensen, DTU: Model Predictive Control for Smart-Energy Homes

VIDEO: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q-ARoGjQ9PU

PDF:  Christian von Scholten, NorthQ:​ Solutions for data driven buildings

VIDEO: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lCMnKg5YM48

PDF: Benjamin Kroposki, NREL:​ Integrated Energy Systems at Scale – Enabling more Renewable Energy  

VIDEO: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WOH63ulj2sY

PDF:  Gerhard Zucker, AIT: ​Digital Building Twins – What we can learn from industry

VIDEO: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JUe8r_OOQlU

PDF: The Building as Cornerstone of our Future Energy System

VIDEO: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VFg65_czsRM

PDF: Magnus Hindsberger, Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO): Preparing for a step change: Challenges of a fast transformation to a renewable future

Søren Skov Bording: Center Denmark

VIDEO: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wg1KJyShzpo

PDF: Introduction to Center Denmark

PDF: Henrik Madsen, DTU: Accelerating the green transition using the flexibility of buildings

No video

Documents: WORKSHOP ON PV-THERMAL SYSTEMS

Kgs. Lyngby, Denmark – October 9, 2019. Hosted by IEA TASK 60 and CITIES

Programme for the PVT workshop

Part 1

Jean-Christophe Hadorn, Switzerland:
PVT systems – an introduction to the technology and Task 60
Thomas Ramschak, AEE, Austria:
Solar Heat Worldwide – PVT market analysis
Korbinian Kramer, Fraunhofer ISE, Germany:
PVT – Challenges for and by Certification for a well organized market penetration
Daniel Zenhäusern SPF, Switzerland:
Key Performance Indicators for PVT Systems
Dr. Korbinian Kramer, and Sebastian Helmling, Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE:
Initiative for market establishment and market penetration of PVT- heat pump heating systems

Part 2

Svend Erik Mikkelsen, COWI, Denmark:
Market potential for PVT, COWI
Niels Radisch, Rambøll, Denmark:
Light weight BI-PVT and ground heat pump
Peder Bacher, DTU Compute, Denmark:
Smart control of energy systems with PVT
Mark Dannemand, DTU Civil engineering, Denmark:
Research projects within PVT at Technical University of Denmark

Part 3 – Presentation of PVT collector manufactures

Dual Sun, Laetitia Brottier, France:
PVT an interesting option for the Nordic climates. Examples of installations with DualSun
Abora, Marta Cañada, Spain:
ABORA CONTRIBUTION – TO TASK 60
Sunovate, Glen Ryan, Australia:
INNOVATING SOLAR. Using PV’s for renewable heat and electricity

570 scientists participated in the SDEWES conference

The 14th conference on Sustainable Development of Energy, Water and Environment Systems (SDEWES) took place in Dubrovnik, Croatia from 01 – 06 October 2019.

Author: Dominik Franjo Dominković

The conference brought together 570 scientists, researchers and industrial experts from 55 countries. As a part of the conference, a special session on Smart Cities and Smart Islands was organized, supported also by the CITIES project (full name of the session: Smart cities vs. smart islands: unique and common points, transferability of solutions and comparison of modelling approaches). The organizers of the special session were Henrik Madsen (DTU Compute), Dominik Franjo Dominković (DTU Compute), Henning Meschede (Kassel University) and Goran Krajačić (University of Zagreb).

During the two days and two time slots, 11 presentations were presented as a part of this special session, as well as a short panel. The topics covered ranged from the machine learning methods for forecasting and temperature optimization in district heating systems with the application on cities and islands, to different energy models used for optimization of energy systems of islands and cities. One presentation dealt with the optimal thermal and electric storage capacities, while two other presentations dealt with the different policy approaches and the transferability of solutions between smart energy cities. The presentations were very applied, with case studies ranging from Croatia, Finland and Denmark to Italy, Canary Islands and the Philippines.  

The CITIES project was represented by Hjörleifur G Bergsteinsson, who held a presentation on Methods for Identifying Critical Temperature for Control of Low-Temperature DH Systems, and Dominik Franjo Dominković, who held a presentation on Detailed spatio-temporal modelling of renewable energy islands.

The sessions gained a lot of interest, and served as a good starting point for discussing future collaborative approaches between the attendants. The papers will be published in special issues of different journals in the coming months. We look forward to initiating new collaborative projects based on the results of the CITIES project.

More information about the conference can be found here: https://www.dubrovnik2019.sdewes.org/, while the more detailed special session description, as well as all the participating authors and presentations, can be found here: https://www.dubrovnik2019.sdewes.org/special.php.

Notat: Sådan kan dynamiske CO2-energiafgifter understøtte grøn omstilling

I energiforliget fra 2018 besluttede partierne at undersøge, om såkaldte dynamiske afgifter kan accelerere den grønne omstilling og vækst. I et nyt notat giver en taskforce under Danmarks største smart city-projekt, CITIES, anbefalinger til, hvordan dynamiske afgifter kan implementeres.

Danmarks målsætning om 70% reduktion af CO2-udledningen i 2030 ift. 1990-niveau kræver, at vi gennemfører den næste etape af den grønne omstilling tre gange hurtigere, end vi har gjort indtil nu, hvor vi kun har reduceret CO2-emissionen med 32%.

De nuværende energiafgifter er generelt konstante, men forskellig mellem de forskellige energiformer og forbrug, fx om det er processtrøm eller strøm til opvarmning. Nu er det vigtigt at få etableret nogle (dynamiske) afgifter, som sætter fart på den grønne omstilling.

Det forudsætter en høj CO2-pris, der sikrer, at sol/vind er konkurrencedygtigt ift. kul og gas. Det kræver også et fleksibelt elforbrug, der svinger i takt med elprisen, der er billigst, når der produceres megen grøn el. Ligesom det forudsætter europæisk samarbejde, m.m.

Det mener vi i ’CITIES Task Force Udvalg omkring energiafgifter og rammebetingelser’, bestående af nøglepersoner fra Danfoss, Teknologisk Institut, Grundfos, Ørsted, Grøn Energi, Tomorrow, Aalborg Universitet, og Danmarks Tekniske Universitet.

I vores nye notat ’Energiafgifter for fremtiden’ får Energistyrelsen vores anbefalinger til, hvordan rammebetingelser, som fokuserer på fleksibilitet, kan indrettes, så investeringer i energisystemet til fx kabler og energianlæg skal holdes nede. Vores forslag indebærer gradvis indførelse af dynamiske CO2-afgifter, og i dansk kontekst foreslår vi også en CO2-afgiftsfond, som kan støtte industrien i den grønne transformation.

Notatet bliver også omtalt i et synspunkt i mediet GridTech den 8. oktober 2019.

Læs notatet her

Klimakonference i Sønderborg: Skræmmende udsigter, men konstruktive klimaløsninger

CITIES havde sit eget spor på konferencen ’100 % Climate Neutrality’ på Alsion i Sønderborg tidligere på ugen, samtidig med at der var et fælles spor med over 250 deltagere fra hele Europa. Her præsenterede internationale forskere alarmerende facts om klimakrisen og de medfølgende konsekvenser.

Alligevel kunne gæsterne gå hjem med en god følelse i maven, for konferencens viste også, at vi allerede har mange af løsningerne på de klimaudfordringer verden står overfor, skriver arrangørerne – herunder CITIES-partner ProjectZero – i en pressemeddelelse.

Nogle af Europas skarpeste klimahjerner var i ugens løb samlet i Sønderborg for at stille skarpt på den galoperende klimakrise. Og selvom der blev malet med den helt sorte pensel, da fakta og konsekvenser blev præsenteret, så kunne både gæster og deltagere ved konference går derfra med et grønt håb for fremtiden – forskere præsenterede nemlig en række løsninger, som kan forebygge konsekvenserne og bl.a. forbedre energieffektiviteten og ressourceanvendelsen.

”Et godt eksempel er det, som vi med en lidt teknisk term, som vi kalder ’energy payback-time’, som er den tid, der går, før elementet har produceret den energi, det krævede at fremstille det. For organiske solceller, som vi forsker i her på SDU Sønderborg, er den tid nu helt nede på 3-4 uger, lyder det fra én af initiativtagerne og arrangørerne af konferencen”, fortæller leder af Mads Clausen Instituttet Horst-Günter Rubahn.

De unge gjorde deres indtog på konferencen
Konferencen bød på indlæg fra ledende forskere og repræsentanter fra projekterne CITIES, ActNow, RollFlex, PE:Region, Energibyerne.dk og det ambitiøse ungeklimaråd fra byer i både Danmark, Letland og Tyskland.

”Jeg vil i den sammenhæng gerne fremhæve ungeklimarådet, som bragte vitalitet ind i konferencen som vi ikke tidligere har oplevet, og så er det jo i bund og grund dem det handler om. Det er deres fremtid”, vi kæmper for, siger Horst-Günter Rubahn.

De unge indtog scenen i forbindelse med konferencens afsluttende paneldiskussion, som understregede, at de ikke ønsker at pege fingre eller kaste skyld på tidligere generationer, men i stedet vil række en udstrakt hånd frem og opfordre til tæt samarbejde og en fælles front mod de klimaproblemer verden står over for.

Dermed var tonen en anden end da ikonet og den svenske klimaaktivist, Greta Thunberg, indtog talerstolen ved FN’s klimatopmøde i New York i sidste måned og beskyldte verdens topledere for at have stjålet hendes drømme og barndom. Men alvoren og engagementet var den samme.

Tager konklusioner med til København
Sønderborgs ProjectZero vision, har til formål at reducere Sønderborg-områdets CO2-udledning til et rundt nul allerede i 2029 og samtidig skabe nye kompetencer og grønne jobs i virksomhederne.

Også ProjectZeros direktør, Peter Rathje, er som medarrangør glad og stolt over klimakonferencen og dens konklusioner:

”Sønderborg og partnerne i bl.a. CITIES, Energibyerne.dk og ActNow-projekterne har været i gang i mange år. Konferencen bekræftede, at ambitiøse klimamålsætninger bedst løses i tæt samarbejde med lokale interessenter og at byer/kommuner er de nye klima-omdrejningspunkter når der skal sættes turbo på klimaindsatserne”, siger Peter Rathje, adm. direktør, ProjectZero.

Peter Rathje opfordrer Regeringen og ministrene til at styrke dialogen med byerne af de relaterede forskningsprojekter, hvor universiteter og virksomheder allerede samarbejder om de nye løsninger til verdens byer/kommuner.

Derfor vil Peter Rathje tage konferencens konklusioner med til bl.a. København, når 96 af verdens ledende byer i uge 41 mødes for, i endnu større skala, at sætte actions på verdens klimaproblemer i forbindelse med ‘C40 Mayors Summit’.

Læs mere om Sonderborg Youth Declaration

Professor Henrik Madsen (nummer fem fra venstre) fra DTU Compute og centerleder for CITIES deltog i panelet, der drøftede de unges Sonderborg Youth Declaration.

Sønderborgs ProjectZero i Sveriges Radio

Sønderborg Kommune har siden 2007 reduceret CO2-udledningen med 38,3 procent. Ambitionen er at have reduceret udledningen af drivhusgasser med 75 procent i 2025, og at kommunen er CO2-neutral i 2029.

Resultatet og visionen trækker overskrifter i nabolandet, hvor Sveriges Radio har været på besøg og talt med tennisklubben (der sparer mange penge ved at holde temperaturen på 13-14 grader i hallen om vinteren og have LED-lamper), et supermarked, borgmesteren og ikke mindst Peter Rathje, der er administrerende direktør i CITIES’ partner ProjectZero.

Hør indslaget her

De overbevisende CO2-reduktioner er formet af ProjectZero, hvor man arbejder med alle energirelaterede CO2-udledninger, som knytter sig til energiproduktion og energiforbrug.

De første 10-12 år handlede det om spare energi, men nu handler det mere om at producere energi, fortæller Peter Rathje til Sveriges Radio. For kommunen vil gennem Roadmap2025 indlemme store mængder grøn energi fra sol, vind og biogas.

Borgmesteren fortæller, at det på bundlinjen har kostet kommunen penge, men at man samtidig har stimuleret erhvervslivet, så der er skabt nye virksomheder og job takket være klimambitionen, som derigennem sikrer skatteindtægter til kommunen.

I den kommende uge fra den 30. september til 2. oktober, finder den internationale klimakonference ’100% Climate Neutrality Conference’ sted i Sønderborg, hvor CITIES har sit eget spor tirsdag eftermiddag og onsdag formiddag. Se programmet herunder.

PROGRAMME FOR CITIES – Center for IT-Intelligent Energy Systems in Cities

Tuesday, 1 October
13:00 – 15:00

TRACK A1: CITIES – From Solutions to Scalable Solutions

The high densities of population, energy consumption, and energy and communications networks in cities offer a great potential for flexibility in the energy system. Cities account for 80% of global energy consumption and emissions, which makes the urban environment an ideal setting for energy systems integration research. 

CITIES is a project which pioneers research into fully integrated city energy systems, building shortterm operational models that feed longer term planning models, considering the spatiotemporal variations, interactions, dynamics and stochastics in the energy system.

The project involves leading position of European academia and industry. The conference programme will include a combination of speeches from the international project participants, European Lighthouse projects (SCC1-H2020) and industry partners in the CITIES project.

  • Henrik Madsen – DTU Compute: Introduction to CITIES AGM- update
  • Annemie Wyckmans – NTNU: CityxChange
  • Kristina Bozhkova – Project Zero: SmartEnCity
  • Karl Sperling – AAU: Challenges and Opportunities of Implementing 100% Renewable Energy in Cities
  • Søren Skov Bording – Center Denmark: Center Denmark
  • Moderation by: Henrik Madsen, Project Manager, CITIES.

15:30 – 17:30
TRACK A1: CITIES – Smart Technical Solutions – Continued discussions…

  • Anders Andersen – EMD: Optimization of private wire operation of wind production and district energy in Hvide Sande
  • Nina Detlefsen – Dansk Fjernvarme: District heating – the key to a smart integrated energy system
  • Shmuel Oren – Berkely: Firming Renewable Power with Demand Response: An End-to-end Aggregator Business Model
  • John Bagterp Jørgensen – DTU: Model Predictive Control for Smart-Energy Homes
  • Christian von Scholten – NorthQ: Solutions for data driven buildings

Wednesday, 2 October
08:30 – 11:30

TRACK A1: CITIES – With a “building” focus?

  • Benjamin Kroposki – NREL: Integrated Energy Systems at Scale – Enabling more Renewable Energy
  • Gerhard Zucker – AIT: Digital Building Twins – What we can learn from industry
  • Hans Bloem – INIVE-DYNASTEE: The Building as Cornerstone of our Future Energy System
  • Magnus Hindsberger, Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) : Preparing for a step change: Challenges of a fast transformation to a renewable future
  • Henrik Madsen – DTU: Accelerating the green transition using the flexibility of buildings