Ajour 2019: Energy taxes must reflect CO2 emissions

The government’s more ambitious targets for CO2 reductions require new technologies, but also a new tax structure that will serve as an incentive to use types of energy with the lowest CO2 emissions.

For technology, the green transition cannot do without the right policy – and vice versa. This is the message in the presentation that Professor Henrik Madsen, DTU Compute, will give at Ajour 2019 – the Danish Engineers´ Association’s annual trade fair. (Maskinmesternes Forening.)

In Ajourmagasinet Henrik Madsen tells more about his upcoming presentation ‘Intelligent energy – an acceleration of the green transition through digitalisation’. The presentation is based, among other things, on a memo that a CITIES task force has recently send to the Danish Energy Agency and politicians on how dynamic CO2 taxes can support the green transition.

Read the article (Danish version) in Ajourmagasinet here.

Read the note ‘Energy Taxes for the Future’ (Danish version) here

Here you can read more about Ajour 2019, which takes place on Thursday, November 28 and Friday, November 29 at the Odense Congress Center.

Henrik Madsen, Professor at DTU Compute and centre Director of CITIES Photo: Hanne Kokkegård

CAN DISTRICT HEATING BE SELF-LEARNING?

GATE21 AND HOFOR will be leading a demonstration on self-learning data-intelligent district heating systems which is built on the tools developed in CITIES

The IDASC project aims to collect and disseminate experiences about opportunities surrounding the self-learning systems.

As part of the project, IDASC will test different models for using more real-time data in district heating, meaning senior executives, decision-makers and politicians involved in district heating can be given the best possible conditions for assessing its potential. This includes technical advantages and economic savings, as well as its CO2 reduction potential.

HOFOR – Greater Copenhagen Utility is the test partner for the project, testing a district heating network serving 25 apartment buildings. Here, a method will be developed to use smart meters from district heating customers for data-driven temperature optimization. The trial period will begin with the start of the 2019 heating season.

Read more in the pdf

Renewable Energy Forecasting Summer School, Rio de Janeiro, July 2020

Henrik Madsen, center director of CITIES and professor at DTU Compute, is invited to Rio de Janeiro in Brazil from 4-5 July 2020 to hold: Renewable Energy Forecasting Summer School.

The IIF Summer School is a two-day course which provides in-depth analysis of a cutting edge topic in forecasting from one of the International Symposium on Forecasting (ISF) invited speakers. The Summer School typically shares the same venue as the ISF.

Renewable Energy Forecasting – Theory and Practice

Today, on average, roughly 50 per cent of the electricity in Denmark is generated as wind and solar power. Wind power alone accounts for around 44 per cent of the electricity load, but this is highly fluctuating. Denmark has hours with almost no wind but also experiences periods with up to 140 per cent of the electricity load. Therefore, forecasting is crucial in order to operate the energy systems including the electricity grid. Prof. Madsen and his collaborators are responsible for the methods used, eg. in Denmark, by both transmission system operators and low voltage operators.

Through a combination of lectures and lab sessions, this course will provide an introduction to methods and tools used for forecasting wind and solar power generation. We will touch upon how the forecasts are used in the daily operation of the power system. For the lab session, R software packages will be used. The topics covered are:

  • Point forecasts and probabilistic forecasts
  • Use of meteorological (MET) forecasts
  • Simple parametric models for forecasting (Box-Jenkins, SARIMA, Holt-Winter, Neural Networks, AI, Hidden Markov, Regime based models)
  • Non- and Semi-parametric methods (Kernel, Spline, Local polynomial, and Varying coefficient based methods)
  • State spaces models in discrete and continuous time
  • Multivariate probabilistic forecasting
  • Methods for forecast evaluation
  • Spatio-temporal forecasting
  • Forecasting hierarchies
  • Combined forecasting (eg. for use of several MET providers)
  • Down- and upscaling
  • Adaptive forecasting
  • Generating forecasts for optimal decision making
  • Tools for wind and solar power forecasting

The course will also provide options for the best tool depending on the penetration level of the renewables and the setting in general.

Interested in attending Henrik Madsen’s summer school? Read more about the course in Rio here.

The power lines meander in the favela Vidigal on a hillside in Rio de Janeiro. Photo: Hanne Kokkegård

Documents from 100% CLIMATE NEUTRALITY, Sonderborg – videos and pdf

The CITIES project had its own track at the conference 100% Climate Neutrality in Sonderborg, Denmark on October 2019. Here you can listen to the videos and follow the presentations in the pdf.

Programme

VIDEO: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sy2s1yaRU0Q

PDF: Henrik Madsen, DTU:​ Introduction to CITIES AGM – update

VIDEO: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MX8F8GW7Ink

PDF:  Annemie Wyckmans, NTNU: ​CityxChange

VIDEO: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BVHf-xa1DBI

PDF: Kristina Bozhkova, Project Zero: ​SmartEnCity

VIDEO: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Me5MKpu4IS0

PDF: Louise Krog Jensen, AAU:​ Challenges and Opportunities of Implementing 100% Renewable Energy in Cities

VIDEO: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aFxpBrdesaA

PDF: Anders Andersen, EMD:​ ​Optimization of private wire operation of wind production and district energy in Hvide Sande

VIDEO: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6zySv_et5M0

PDF: Nina Detlefsen, DFF:​ District heating – the key to a smart integrated energy system

VIDEO: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BdlumhIHdt4&t=3s

PDF: Firming Renewable Power with Demand Response:- An End-to-end Aggregator Business Model

VIDEO: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yH1FtHWqTMw&t=1S

PDF: John Bagterp Jørgensen, DTU: Model Predictive Control for Smart-Energy Homes

VIDEO: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q-ARoGjQ9PU

PDF:  Christian von Scholten, NorthQ:​ Solutions for data driven buildings

VIDEO: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lCMnKg5YM48

PDF: Benjamin Kroposki, NREL:​ Integrated Energy Systems at Scale – Enabling more Renewable Energy  

VIDEO: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WOH63ulj2sY

PDF:  Gerhard Zucker, AIT: ​Digital Building Twins – What we can learn from industry

VIDEO: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JUe8r_OOQlU

PDF: The Building as Cornerstone of our Future Energy System

VIDEO: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VFg65_czsRM

PDF: Magnus Hindsberger, Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO): Preparing for a step change: Challenges of a fast transformation to a renewable future

Søren Skov Bording: Center Denmark

VIDEO: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wg1KJyShzpo

PDF: Introduction to Center Denmark

PDF: Henrik Madsen, DTU: Accelerating the green transition using the flexibility of buildings

No video

Documents: WORKSHOP ON PV-THERMAL SYSTEMS

Kgs. Lyngby, Denmark – October 9, 2019. Hosted by IEA TASK 60 and CITIES

Programme for the PVT workshop

Part 1

Jean-Christophe Hadorn, Switzerland:
PVT systems – an introduction to the technology and Task 60
Thomas Ramschak, AEE, Austria:
Solar Heat Worldwide – PVT market analysis
Korbinian Kramer, Fraunhofer ISE, Germany:
PVT – Challenges for and by Certification for a well organized market penetration
Daniel Zenhäusern SPF, Switzerland:
Key Performance Indicators for PVT Systems
Dr. Korbinian Kramer, and Sebastian Helmling, Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE:
Initiative for market establishment and market penetration of PVT- heat pump heating systems

Part 2

Svend Erik Mikkelsen, COWI, Denmark:
Market potential for PVT, COWI
Niels Radisch, Rambøll, Denmark:
Light weight BI-PVT and ground heat pump
Peder Bacher, DTU Compute, Denmark:
Smart control of energy systems with PVT
Mark Dannemand, DTU Civil engineering, Denmark:
Research projects within PVT at Technical University of Denmark

Part 3 – Presentation of PVT collector manufactures

Dual Sun, Laetitia Brottier, France:
PVT an interesting option for the Nordic climates. Examples of installations with DualSun
Abora, Marta Cañada, Spain:
ABORA CONTRIBUTION – TO TASK 60
Sunovate, Glen Ryan, Australia:
INNOVATING SOLAR. Using PV’s for renewable heat and electricity

570 scientists participated in the SDEWES conference

The 14th conference on Sustainable Development of Energy, Water and Environment Systems (SDEWES) took place in Dubrovnik, Croatia from 01 – 06 October 2019.

Author: Dominik Franjo Dominković

The conference brought together 570 scientists, researchers and industrial experts from 55 countries. As a part of the conference, a special session on Smart Cities and Smart Islands was organized, supported also by the CITIES project (full name of the session: Smart cities vs. smart islands: unique and common points, transferability of solutions and comparison of modelling approaches). The organizers of the special session were Henrik Madsen (DTU Compute), Dominik Franjo Dominković (DTU Compute), Henning Meschede (Kassel University) and Goran Krajačić (University of Zagreb).

During the two days and two time slots, 11 presentations were presented as a part of this special session, as well as a short panel. The topics covered ranged from the machine learning methods for forecasting and temperature optimization in district heating systems with the application on cities and islands, to different energy models used for optimization of energy systems of islands and cities. One presentation dealt with the optimal thermal and electric storage capacities, while two other presentations dealt with the different policy approaches and the transferability of solutions between smart energy cities. The presentations were very applied, with case studies ranging from Croatia, Finland and Denmark to Italy, Canary Islands and the Philippines.  

The CITIES project was represented by Hjörleifur G Bergsteinsson, who held a presentation on Methods for Identifying Critical Temperature for Control of Low-Temperature DH Systems, and Dominik Franjo Dominković, who held a presentation on Detailed spatio-temporal modelling of renewable energy islands.

The sessions gained a lot of interest, and served as a good starting point for discussing future collaborative approaches between the attendants. The papers will be published in special issues of different journals in the coming months. We look forward to initiating new collaborative projects based on the results of the CITIES project.

More information about the conference can be found here: https://www.dubrovnik2019.sdewes.org/, while the more detailed special session description, as well as all the participating authors and presentations, can be found here: https://www.dubrovnik2019.sdewes.org/special.php.

Notat: Sådan kan dynamiske CO2-energiafgifter understøtte grøn omstilling

I energiforliget fra 2018 besluttede partierne at undersøge, om såkaldte dynamiske afgifter kan accelerere den grønne omstilling og vækst. I et nyt notat giver en taskforce under Danmarks største smart city-projekt, CITIES, anbefalinger til, hvordan dynamiske afgifter kan implementeres.

Danmarks målsætning om 70% reduktion af CO2-udledningen i 2030 ift. 1990-niveau kræver, at vi gennemfører den næste etape af den grønne omstilling tre gange hurtigere, end vi har gjort indtil nu, hvor vi kun har reduceret CO2-emissionen med 32%.

De nuværende energiafgifter er generelt konstante, men forskellig mellem de forskellige energiformer og forbrug, fx om det er processtrøm eller strøm til opvarmning. Nu er det vigtigt at få etableret nogle (dynamiske) afgifter, som sætter fart på den grønne omstilling.

Det forudsætter en høj CO2-pris, der sikrer, at sol/vind er konkurrencedygtigt ift. kul og gas. Det kræver også et fleksibelt elforbrug, der svinger i takt med elprisen, der er billigst, når der produceres megen grøn el. Ligesom det forudsætter europæisk samarbejde, m.m.

Det mener vi i ’CITIES Task Force Udvalg omkring energiafgifter og rammebetingelser’, bestående af nøglepersoner fra Danfoss, Teknologisk Institut, Grundfos, Ørsted, Grøn Energi, Tomorrow, Aalborg Universitet, og Danmarks Tekniske Universitet.

I vores nye notat ’Energiafgifter for fremtiden’ får Energistyrelsen vores anbefalinger til, hvordan rammebetingelser, som fokuserer på fleksibilitet, kan indrettes, så investeringer i energisystemet til fx kabler og energianlæg skal holdes nede. Vores forslag indebærer gradvis indførelse af dynamiske CO2-afgifter, og i dansk kontekst foreslår vi også en CO2-afgiftsfond, som kan støtte industrien i den grønne transformation.

Notatet bliver også omtalt i et synspunkt i mediet GridTech den 8. oktober 2019.

Læs notatet her

Sønderborgs ProjectZero i Sveriges Radio

Sønderborg Kommune har siden 2007 reduceret CO2-udledningen med 38,3 procent. Ambitionen er at have reduceret udledningen af drivhusgasser med 75 procent i 2025, og at kommunen er CO2-neutral i 2029.

Resultatet og visionen trækker overskrifter i nabolandet, hvor Sveriges Radio har været på besøg og talt med tennisklubben (der sparer mange penge ved at holde temperaturen på 13-14 grader i hallen om vinteren og have LED-lamper), et supermarked, borgmesteren og ikke mindst Peter Rathje, der er administrerende direktør i CITIES’ partner ProjectZero.

Hør indslaget her

De overbevisende CO2-reduktioner er formet af ProjectZero, hvor man arbejder med alle energirelaterede CO2-udledninger, som knytter sig til energiproduktion og energiforbrug.

De første 10-12 år handlede det om spare energi, men nu handler det mere om at producere energi, fortæller Peter Rathje til Sveriges Radio. For kommunen vil gennem Roadmap2025 indlemme store mængder grøn energi fra sol, vind og biogas.

Borgmesteren fortæller, at det på bundlinjen har kostet kommunen penge, men at man samtidig har stimuleret erhvervslivet, så der er skabt nye virksomheder og job takket være klimambitionen, som derigennem sikrer skatteindtægter til kommunen.

I den kommende uge fra den 30. september til 2. oktober, finder den internationale klimakonference ’100% Climate Neutrality Conference’ sted i Sønderborg, hvor CITIES har sit eget spor tirsdag eftermiddag og onsdag formiddag. Se programmet herunder.

PROGRAMME FOR CITIES – Center for IT-Intelligent Energy Systems in Cities

Tuesday, 1 October
13:00 – 15:00

TRACK A1: CITIES – From Solutions to Scalable Solutions

The high densities of population, energy consumption, and energy and communications networks in cities offer a great potential for flexibility in the energy system. Cities account for 80% of global energy consumption and emissions, which makes the urban environment an ideal setting for energy systems integration research. 

CITIES is a project which pioneers research into fully integrated city energy systems, building shortterm operational models that feed longer term planning models, considering the spatiotemporal variations, interactions, dynamics and stochastics in the energy system.

The project involves leading position of European academia and industry. The conference programme will include a combination of speeches from the international project participants, European Lighthouse projects (SCC1-H2020) and industry partners in the CITIES project.

  • Henrik Madsen – DTU Compute: Introduction to CITIES AGM- update
  • Annemie Wyckmans – NTNU: CityxChange
  • Kristina Bozhkova – Project Zero: SmartEnCity
  • Karl Sperling – AAU: Challenges and Opportunities of Implementing 100% Renewable Energy in Cities
  • Søren Skov Bording – Center Denmark: Center Denmark
  • Moderation by: Henrik Madsen, Project Manager, CITIES.

15:30 – 17:30
TRACK A1: CITIES – Smart Technical Solutions – Continued discussions…

  • Anders Andersen – EMD: Optimization of private wire operation of wind production and district energy in Hvide Sande
  • Nina Detlefsen – Dansk Fjernvarme: District heating – the key to a smart integrated energy system
  • Shmuel Oren – Berkely: Firming Renewable Power with Demand Response: An End-to-end Aggregator Business Model
  • John Bagterp Jørgensen – DTU: Model Predictive Control for Smart-Energy Homes
  • Christian von Scholten – NorthQ: Solutions for data driven buildings

Wednesday, 2 October
08:30 – 11:30

TRACK A1: CITIES – With a “building” focus?

  • Benjamin Kroposki – NREL: Integrated Energy Systems at Scale – Enabling more Renewable Energy
  • Gerhard Zucker – AIT: Digital Building Twins – What we can learn from industry
  • Hans Bloem – INIVE-DYNASTEE: The Building as Cornerstone of our Future Energy System
  • Magnus Hindsberger, Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) : Preparing for a step change: Challenges of a fast transformation to a renewable future
  • Henrik Madsen – DTU: Accelerating the green transition using the flexibility of buildings

Summer school engineering the green transition

During a week, 44 young researchers got ‘hands-on’ experience with statistical modelling techniques for smart energy systems and intelligent energy savings, including calculating solar energy gain in buildings.

44 PhD students and postdocs mainly from universities in Europe have spent last week of August at DTU Compute to learn about smart energy systems and intelligent energy savings.

The summer school was arranged by the two centres CITIES, lead by DTU (including the Interreg supported project Smart Cities Accelerator (SCA) and researchers from DTU, Section for Dynamical Systems), and FME-ZEN, lead by NTNU in Norway in collaboration with IEA EBC Annexes 67 & 71.

During the summer school named ‘Time series analysis – with a focus on modelling and forecasting in energy systems’ the participants were introduced to statistical techniques that are particularly useful for data driven modelling of energy systems. As well as the use of the models for e.g. control.

Summer school – Time series analysis – with a focus on modelling and forecasting in energy systems. PhD student Nasibeh Saffari (standing in the middle right in front of man with yellow t-shirt). (Evan Alexander, standing second from the right).

Engineering the future

This year was only the second time for the summer school about smart energy systems and Professor Henrik Madsen was very happy with the number of participants.

“These are the PhD students and postdocs to help the world achieve the green transition. These are not people, who are close to retiring. They are the ones who need to be part of this process,” he says.

“It is fascinating that there are so many coming from universities and knowledge institutions around Europe, and with backgrounds from universities all over the world, to hear about what we can do and learn about the technologies, we use in SCA, FME-ZEN and CITIES,” Henrik Madsen says.

Modelling building thermal dynamics

During the course, the students learned about how CITIES, FME-ZEN and SCA work with intelligent energy savings using data to characterize the thermal performance of buildings. And how to identify the dynamics of the building.

This applies both in terms of being able to use the building as thermal energy storage, but also to be able to pinpoint the easiest achievable energy savings – thus where building refurbishment gives the most value.

The summer school alternated between lectures and exercises to get ‘hands-on’ experience with the technique – for example, to calculate solar energy gain in buildings, and how it affects the building.

This is a technology, that PhD student Christoffer Rasmussen and his colleagues from DTU Compute has developed. Christoffer Rasmussen was also one of the teachers at the summer school:

“Usually, the solar energy gain is said to be dependent on the sun’s radiation from the outside, but the usual data driven models assume that the solar gain is proportional to the solar irradiation and constant throughout the day. It is not, as the Earth is turning.”

“In our data driven models we have made the solar energy inflow dependent on the sun’s position in the sky, such that you can account for, for example, a large window area towards one corner of the Earth and shading trees toward another. The incident angle of the sun rays will also change during the day which affects the amount of irradiation entering the building. All this, and more, are we now capable of estimating only based time series measurements,” explains Christoffer Rasmussen.

During the course, participants have learnt how the statistical modelling techniques work fundamentally and how to implement it in grey-box models (combining a partial theoretical structure with data) and in this way model the solar heat gain in buildings.

“At the end of the day, you want a good model that can describe the building dynamics and forecast different scenarios. It can be used, for example, to control the heating system of the building; how does the temperature react if you turn off or turn on the heat? How can you reduce the cost of heating the building if the consumer has variable energy prices, while using more green energy and keeping the consumer happy and warm?” says Christoffer Rasmussen.

Happy participants

PhD student Nasibeh Saffari from URV – Rovira at Virgili University in Catalonia, Spain is one of the participants at the summer school.

Usually, she works with artificial intelligence in the pharmaceutical industry. She is here because her friends praised last years summer school.

“It is interesting to work with models and algorithms. I am here to expand my knowledge. It is hard because I work with something completely different at home in Spain, but I’ve learned a lot over the week,” she says.

Another participant, American Evan Alexander, who has an MBA from Duke University, works daily for Maersk’s digitization group in Copenhagen, where data is analyzed through a forecasting program to optimize Maersk’s shipping business.

“It has been great! This is the second year that I spend a week of my summer vacation at a summer school at DTU. I am here to learn new modelling techniques and update my knowledge. I definitely expect to do it again next year because I get a lot of knowledge back home,” says Evan Alexander.

After the course, the students submit a report on the exercises they work on at the summer school.

PhD student Nasibeh Saffari (right)
Hong Kong: CITIES model for Energy Systems in Smart Homes

Hong Kong: CITIES model for Energy Systems in Smart Homes

These weeks, Hong Kong is massive in the media due to major demonstrations and unrest in the city, but life in the city continues alongside. Last week, PhD student Hjørdis Amanda Schlüter and Professor John Bagterp, both affiliated with CITIES and the Smart Cities Accelerator at DTU Compute, attended the IEEE CCTA 2019 (Conference on Control Technology and Applications) in Hong Kong.

Here, on August 20, 2019 Hjørdis Amanda Schlüter presented a new model, EMPC, to manage the energy system in smart homes (Economic Model Predictive Control for Energy Systems in Smart Homes).

Here, the energy system basically consists of a stationary battery, photovoltaic solar cells on the roof, a heat pump for heating and an electric car where the battery has to be charged.

Using weather forecasts, thermal comfort and driving profiles, EMPC coordinates this energy system and its interaction with the external energy system by buying and selling electricity at prices announced in advance.

Hjørdis Amanda Schlüter. Photo: John Bagterp

DTU Compute is not the first to present such a model. It has been done before, for example, by Stephen Boyd (Department of Electrical Engineering, Stanford University) in the article “Dynamic energy management with scenario-based robust MPC”. There he and his people focus on the software they have created to control a smart home energy system. ‘

“Our focus is on developing the simplest model we could think of. The model is so simple that it is easy to set up for others who do not know so much about the subject,” says Hjørdis Amanda Schlüter.

The conference was quite small and some of the participants did not show up due to the unrest in Hong Kong. Nevertheless, about 20 researchers and firms found their way to Hjørdis Amanda Schlüter’s presentation, and she got a lot of questions about the model.

The research continues with two graduate students who will be writing a thesis at John Bagterp this semester. They have to reproduce Hjørdis Amanda Schlüter’s results and then extend the model to a whole street instead of a single house.

Click here to see the PP presentation

Hjørdis Amanda Schüter, PhD student at DTU Compute. Photo: Hanne Kokkegård