ProccS.org is a tool for simulating occupancy profiles for private households. The application creates occupancy profiles for bathroom, kitchen, living room and bedrooms. The profiles can be downloaded in csv-format. The underlying model is based on a inhomogeneous Markov chain. It was trained on time-use data of Danish households from 2008/2009.
Sebastian Wolf has developed the online-tool ProccS during his PhD.
The government’s more ambitious targets for CO2 reductions require new technologies, but also a new tax structure that will serve as an incentive to use types of energy with the lowest CO2 emissions.
technology, the green transition cannot do without the right policy – and vice
versa. This is the message in the presentation that Professor Henrik Madsen,
DTU Compute, will give at Ajour 2019 – the Danish Engineers´ Association’s annual trade fair. (Maskinmesternes
Ajourmagasinet Henrik Madsen tells more about his upcoming presentation
‘Intelligent energy – an acceleration of the green transition through
digitalisation’. The presentation is based, among other things, on a memo that
a CITIES task force has recently send to the Danish Energy Agency and
politicians on how dynamic CO2 taxes can support the green
GATE21 AND HOFOR will be leading a demonstration on self-learning data-intelligent district heating systems which is built on the tools developed in CITIES
project aims to collect and disseminate experiences about opportunities
surrounding the self-learning systems.
As part of
the project, IDASC will test different models for using more real-time data in
district heating, meaning senior executives, decision-makers and politicians
involved in district heating can be given the best possible conditions for
assessing its potential. This includes technical advantages and economic
savings, as well as its CO2 reduction potential.
Greater Copenhagen Utility is the test partner for the project, testing a
district heating network serving 25 apartment buildings. Here, a method will be
developed to use smart meters from district heating customers for data-driven
temperature optimization. The trial period will begin with the start of the
2019 heating season.
Henrik Madsen, center director of CITIES and professor
at DTU Compute, is invited to Rio de Janeiro in Brazil from 4-5 July 2020 to hold:
Renewable Energy Forecasting Summer School.
IIF Summer School is a two-day course which provides in-depth analysis of a
cutting edge topic in forecasting from one of the International Symposium on
Forecasting (ISF) invited speakers. The Summer School typically shares the same
venue as the ISF.
Forecasting – Theory and Practice
Today, on average, roughly 50 per cent of the electricity in Denmark is generated as wind and solar power. Wind power alone accounts for around 44 per cent of the electricity load, but this is highly fluctuating. Denmark has hours with almost no wind but also experiences periods with up to 140 per cent of the electricity load. Therefore, forecasting is crucial in order to operate the energy systems including the electricity grid. Prof. Madsen and his collaborators are responsible for the methods used, eg. in Denmark, by both transmission system operators and low voltage operators.
Through a combination of lectures and lab sessions, this course will provide an introduction to methods and tools used for forecasting wind and solar power generation. We will touch upon how the forecasts are used in the daily operation of the power system. For the lab session, R software packages will be used. The topics covered are:
Point forecasts and probabilistic forecasts
Use of meteorological (MET) forecasts
Simple parametric models for forecasting (Box-Jenkins, SARIMA, Holt-Winter, Neural Networks, AI, Hidden Markov, Regime based models)
Non- and Semi-parametric methods (Kernel, Spline, Local polynomial, and Varying coefficient based methods)
State spaces models in discrete and continuous time
Multivariate probabilistic forecasting
Methods for forecast evaluation
Combined forecasting (eg. for use of several MET providers)
Down- and upscaling
Generating forecasts for optimal decision making
Tools for wind and solar power forecasting
The course will also provide options for
the best tool depending on the penetration level of the renewables and the
setting in general.
conference on Sustainable Development of Energy, Water and Environment Systems
(SDEWES) took place in Dubrovnik, Croatia from 01 – 06 October 2019.
Author:Dominik Franjo Dominković
The conference brought together 570 scientists, researchers and industrial experts from 55 countries. As a part of the conference, a special session on Smart Cities and Smart Islands was organized, supported also by the CITIES project (full name of the session: Smart cities vs. smart islands: unique and common points, transferability of solutions and comparison of modelling approaches). The organizers of the special session were Henrik Madsen (DTU Compute), Dominik Franjo Dominković (DTU Compute), Henning Meschede (Kassel University) and Goran Krajačić (University of Zagreb).
During the two
days and two time slots, 11 presentations were presented as a part of this
special session, as well as a short panel. The topics covered ranged from the
machine learning methods for forecasting and temperature optimization in
district heating systems with the application on cities and islands, to
different energy models used for optimization of energy systems of islands and
cities. One presentation dealt with the optimal thermal and electric storage
capacities, while two other presentations dealt with the different policy approaches
and the transferability of solutions between smart energy cities. The
presentations were very applied, with case studies ranging from Croatia,
Finland and Denmark to Italy, Canary Islands and the Philippines.
project was represented by Hjörleifur G Bergsteinsson, who held a presentation
on Methods for Identifying Critical
Temperature for Control of Low-Temperature DH Systems, and Dominik Franjo
Dominković, who held a presentation on Detailed
spatio-temporal modelling of renewable energy islands.
gained a lot of interest, and served as a good starting point for discussing
future collaborative approaches between the attendants. The papers will be
published in special issues of different journals in the coming months. We look
forward to initiating new collaborative projects based on the results of the
I energiforliget fra 2018 besluttede partierne at undersøge, om såkaldte dynamiske afgifter kan accelerere den grønne omstilling og vækst. I et nyt notat giver en taskforce under Danmarks største smart city-projekt, CITIES, anbefalinger til, hvordan dynamiske afgifter kan implementeres.
Danmarks målsætning om 70% reduktion af CO2-udledningen i 2030 ift. 1990-niveau kræver, at vi gennemfører den næste etape af den grønne omstilling tre gange hurtigere, end vi har gjort indtil nu, hvor vi kun har reduceret CO2-emissionen med 32%.
De nuværende energiafgifter er generelt konstante, men forskellig
mellem de forskellige energiformer og forbrug, fx om det er processtrøm eller
strøm til opvarmning. Nu er det vigtigt at få etableret nogle (dynamiske)
afgifter, som sætter fart på den grønne omstilling.
Det forudsætter en høj CO2-pris, der sikrer, at sol/vind
er konkurrencedygtigt ift. kul og gas. Det kræver også et fleksibelt elforbrug,
der svinger i takt med elprisen, der er billigst, når der produceres megen grøn
el. Ligesom det forudsætter europæisk samarbejde, m.m.
Det mener vi i ’CITIES Task Force Udvalg omkring
energiafgifter og rammebetingelser’, bestående af nøglepersoner fra Danfoss,
Teknologisk Institut, Grundfos, Ørsted, Grøn Energi, Tomorrow, Aalborg
Universitet, og Danmarks Tekniske Universitet.
I vores nye notat ’Energiafgifter for fremtiden’ får Energistyrelsen vores anbefalinger til, hvordan rammebetingelser, som fokuserer på fleksibilitet, kan indrettes, så investeringer i energisystemet til fx kabler og energianlæg skal holdes nede. Vores forslag indebærer gradvis indførelse af dynamiske CO2-afgifter, og i dansk kontekst foreslår vi også en CO2-afgiftsfond, som kan støtte industrien i den grønne transformation.
Sønderborg Kommune har siden 2007 reduceret CO2-udledningen
med 38,3 procent. Ambitionen er at have reduceret udledningen af drivhusgasser
med 75 procent i 2025, og at kommunen er CO2-neutral i 2029.
Resultatet og visionen trækker overskrifter i nabolandet, hvor Sveriges Radio har været på besøg og talt med tennisklubben (der sparer mange penge ved at holde temperaturen på 13-14 grader i hallen om vinteren og have LED-lamper), et supermarked, borgmesteren og ikke mindst Peter Rathje, der er administrerende direktør i CITIES’ partner ProjectZero.
De overbevisende CO2-reduktioner er formet af ProjectZero, hvor
man arbejder med alle energirelaterede CO2-udledninger, som knytter sig til
energiproduktion og energiforbrug.
De første 10-12 år handlede det om spare energi, men nu
handler det mere om at producere energi, fortæller Peter Rathje til Sveriges
Radio. For kommunen vil gennem Roadmap2025 indlemme store mængder grøn energi
fra sol, vind og biogas.
Borgmesteren fortæller, at det på bundlinjen har kostet
kommunen penge, men at man samtidig har stimuleret erhvervslivet, så der er
skabt nye virksomheder og job takket være klimambitionen, som derigennem sikrer
skatteindtægter til kommunen.
I den kommende uge fra den 30. september til 2. oktober, finder den internationale klimakonference ’100% Climate Neutrality Conference’ sted i Sønderborg, hvor CITIES har sit eget spor tirsdag eftermiddag og onsdag formiddag. Se programmet herunder.
PROGRAMME FOR CITIES – Center for IT-Intelligent Energy Systems in Cities
Tuesday, 1 October 13:00 – 15:00
TRACK A1: CITIES – From Solutions to Scalable Solutions
The high densities of population, energy consumption, and energy and communications networks in cities offer a great potential for flexibility in the energy system. Cities account for 80% of global energy consumption and emissions, which makes the urban environment an ideal setting for energy systems integration research.
CITIES is a project which pioneers research into fully integrated city energy systems, building shortterm operational models that feed longer term planning models, considering the spatiotemporal variations, interactions, dynamics and stochastics in the energy system.
The project involves leading position of European academia and industry. The conference programme will include a combination of speeches from the international project participants, European Lighthouse projects (SCC1-H2020) and industry partners in the CITIES project.
Henrik Madsen – DTU Compute: Introduction to CITIES AGM- update
Annemie Wyckmans – NTNU: CityxChange
Kristina Bozhkova – Project Zero: SmartEnCity
Karl Sperling – AAU: Challenges and Opportunities of Implementing 100% Renewable Energy in Cities
Søren Skov Bording – Center Denmark: Center Denmark
Moderation by: Henrik Madsen, Project Manager, CITIES.
During a week, 44 young researchers got ‘hands-on’ experience with statistical modelling techniques for smart energy systems and intelligent energy savings, including calculating solar energy gain in buildings.
44 PhD students and postdocs mainly from universities in Europe have spent last week of August at DTU Compute to learn about smart energy systems and intelligent energy savings.
The summer school was arranged by the two centres CITIES, lead by DTU (including the Interreg supported project Smart Cities Accelerator (SCA) and researchers from DTU, Section for Dynamical Systems), and FME-ZEN, lead by NTNU in Norway in collaboration with IEA EBC Annexes 67 & 71.
During the summer school named ‘Time series analysis – with a focus on modelling and forecasting in energy systems’ the participants were introduced to statistical techniques that are particularly useful for data driven modelling of energy systems. As well as the use of the models for e.g. control.
Engineering the future
This year was only
the second time for the summer school about smart energy systems and Professor
Henrik Madsen was very happy with the number of participants.
“These are the PhD students and postdocs to help the world achieve the green transition. These are not people, who are close to retiring. They are the ones who need to be part of this process,” he says.
“It is fascinating that there are so many coming from universities and knowledge institutions around Europe, and with backgrounds from universities all over the world, to hear about what we can do and learn about the technologies, we use in SCA, FME-ZEN and CITIES,” Henrik Madsen says.
Modelling building thermal dynamics
During the course,
the students learned about how CITIES, FME-ZEN and SCA work with intelligent energy
savings using data to characterize the thermal performance of buildings. And
how to identify the dynamics of the building.
This applies both in
terms of being able to use the building as thermal energy storage, but also to
be able to pinpoint the easiest achievable energy savings – thus where building
refurbishment gives the most value.
The summer school alternated between lectures and exercises to get ‘hands-on’ experience with the technique – for example, to calculate solar energy gain in buildings, and how it affects the building.
This is a technology,
that PhD student Christoffer Rasmussen and his colleagues from DTU Compute has
developed. Christoffer Rasmussen was also one of the teachers at the summer
“Usually, the solar energy gain is said to be dependent on the sun’s radiation from the outside, but the usual data driven models assume that the solar gain is proportional to the solar irradiation and constant throughout the day. It is not, as the Earth is turning.”
“In our data driven models we have made the solar energy inflow dependent on the sun’s position in the sky, such that you can account for, for example, a large window area towards one corner of the Earth and shading trees toward another. The incident angle of the sun rays will also change during the day which affects the amount of irradiation entering the building. All this, and more, are we now capable of estimating only based time series measurements,” explains Christoffer Rasmussen.
During the course,
participants have learnt how the statistical modelling techniques work
fundamentally and how to implement it in grey-box models (combining a partial
theoretical structure with data) and in this way model the solar heat gain in
“At the end of the day, you want a good model that can describe the building dynamics and forecast different scenarios. It can be used, for example, to control the heating system of the building; how does the temperature react if you turn off or turn on the heat? How can you reduce the cost of heating the building if the consumer has variable energy prices, while using more green energy and keeping the consumer happy and warm?” says Christoffer Rasmussen.
PhD student Nasibeh
Saffari from URV – Rovira at Virgili University in Catalonia, Spain is one of
the participants at the summer school.
Usually, she works with artificial intelligence in the pharmaceutical industry. She is here because her friends praised last years summer school.
“It is interesting to work with models and algorithms. I am here to expand my knowledge. It is hard because I work with something completely different at home in Spain, but I’ve learned a lot over the week,” she says.
American Evan Alexander, who has an MBA from Duke University, works daily for
Maersk’s digitization group in Copenhagen, where data is analyzed through a
forecasting program to optimize Maersk’s shipping business.
“It has been great! This is the second year that I spend a week of my summer vacation at a summer school at DTU. I am here to learn new modelling techniques and update my knowledge. I definitely expect to do it again next year because I get a lot of knowledge back home,” says Evan Alexander.
After the course, the students submit a report on the exercises they work on at the summer school.