No need for performance anxiety about green transition: New Year greeting from CITIES

New Year’s greeting from Henrik Madsen, Professor at DTU Compute, Project Manager at CITIES and Center Manager for the Cities Innovation Center.

The New Year announces the start of a decade of green transition, and the 2020s will be crucial to the future climate on Earth. In Denmark, we have got the Climate Act (Klimaloven) and a goal of 70 per cent reduction in 2030, and the European Commission has announced the Green Deal. So now there is serious action behind the words so that concrete solutions are put into use.

Fortunately, Denmark’s largest smart energy and smart city research project, CITIES – supported by the Innovation Fund Denmark, shows that there are already many tools on the shelves that give hope that the green transition will succeed. And that it doesn’t have to be that hard.

CITIES is a research project. Here, one year before the project ends, we are pleased that we have already published 110 scientific papers. It is far more than the originally promised 30-40 articles. It is well worth noting research results published in peer-review magazines. This shows, I believe, that there has been a need for research in the field of smart energy systems because we do not get results in scientific journals if the research tells something that is well known and tested. CITIES has been and is the leader with the new knowledge.

When we talk about crucial new CITIES knowledge that is important for the conversion from fossil fuels to renewable energy, ‘flexibility’ is at the top.

The energy production of the future will fluctuate as the wind blows and the sun shines. Consumers need to adapt to production, as opposed to today just turning coal and gas up and down in line with consumer needs. Consumer flexibility in the future must ensure a balance between production and consumption.

Before CITIES got started, all previous projects showed that there was no or only very low flexibility. But they had looked isolated into, for example, the grid. That was not the right way to study the problem. We can see that there is a lot of flexibility when we focus on the sectoral connection and use IT tools to control the interaction between electricity, heat, gas, etc. It shows many of our demo projects.

At CITIES, we have often connected digitization solutions to the technological solutions that partners such as Grundfos and Danfoss already have, to get the flexibility. 

For example, we have seen that today we can save 15-20 per cent in CO2 emissions in some of the demo projects through IT management, so we use electricity and heat up when there is plenty of wind turbine power in the electricity grid and on the other hand save electricity when it comes from fossil fuels.

It is just one of 30-40 different CITIES solutions. In addition, we have developed low-temperature technologies in district heating, technologies for operating optimization of the temperature in district heating plants, technologies for operating optimization of wastewater treatment plants, heating of holiday cottages and for controlling the grid.

For example, a report prepared by Damvad for Danish District Heating shows that Denmark will be able to save DKK 800 million annually by optimizing and lowering the flow temperature in district heating systems using IT and data-intelligent solutions developed through CITIES.

We promised savings and CO2 reductions. Today we have tools and knowledge that the world did not have as we embarked on how to get flexibility and accelerate the green transition. This is often done by building on existing solutions from Danish companies, and therefore CITIES solutions lead to an acceleration of the green transition through green growth; including more jobs, increased revenue and exports.

This is one of the things we will be presenting at the closing conference for CITIES on November 9 and 10, 2020. Please put the date in your calendar right away!

When CITIES started back in 2014, many talked about ‘smart city’. But there were no tools available. Today we have the tools and the municipalities are coming along: CITIES shows that there is hope for the green transition.

However, our research also shows that we need changing framework conditions and taxes. The existing framework conditions are a barrier to the green transition – a barrier to the solutions that ensure the green transition and the possibility of reaching, for example, the Danish 70-2030 target.

In CITIES we have the solutions, but it is the politicians who must now create the basis for Denmark – through e.g. the new digitization centre for smart energy systems ‘Center Denmark’ – to show the way to a quick and efficient green transition.

Denmark is lagging behind because the politicians will not address the framework conditions.  A report released by the European Commission just before Christmas confirms that.

In Denmark, there is broad political agreement on the ambitious target of a 70 per cent reduction in greenhouse gases by 2030. This year the government will spend more than DKK 1.5 billion on green research. In order to really benefit it requires the right framework conditions.

The energy agreement from 2018 and a number of committees have highlighted the need for new framework conditions, but nothing has happened. CITIES has in a collaboration between industry, universities, SMEs and people focused on innovation developed and proposed a structure for new framework conditions. We hope that we will get some framework conditions as soon as possible that, unlike the current ones, can promote the green transition – accompanied by green growth.

In 2014, CITIES published a brochure entitled: Could we be 100% fossil-free tomorrow?

The answer was – and is – yes! Maybe not tomorrow. In CITIES we don’t think it is that hard. We just need to be smarter than today and use intelligent solutions – and stop clinging to outdated framework conditions.

Happy New Year.

Danish version – look at the pdf

Overskudsvarme kan gøre den frosne juleand mere grøn

Varmeproduktionen fra køleanlæg i supermarkeder kan let genbruges internt og ledes ud i fjernvarmenettet, viser projektet Super Supermarkets med bl.a. CITIES-partnere. Gratis kogebog og to beregningsmetoder kan hjælpe supermarkeder, der vil i gang. Og lovændring vil gøre det endnu mere attraktivt.

Efter mange års tøven behandler Folketinget lige nu et lovforslag, der skal gøre det rentabelt at udnytte overskudsvarme på nye måder.

På sigt betyder det, at supermarkeder vil kunne udnytte varmeproduktionen fra køleanlægget både til opvarmning internt i supermarkedet og sælge (rest)varmen til det lokale fjernvarmeselskab. Varme, der for omkring 95 procent af tilfældene i dag går til spilde – både i Danmark og ude i verden.

“Perspektivet er stort. Genvinding af varmen betyder også, at kølevarerne i butikken belaster klimaet mindre. Man kan fristes til i denne søde juletid at sige, at udnyttelsen af overskudsvarmen vil gøre juleanden mere grøn, når den er slagtet,” fortæller Torben Funder-Kristensen, chef for PA i Danfoss Cooling, der er partner i CITIES.

“Perspektivet er stort. Genvinding af varmen betyder også, at kølevarerne i butikken belaster klimaet mindre. Man kan fristes til i denne søde juletid at sige, at udnyttelsen af overskudsvarmen vil gøre juleanden mere grøn, når den er slagtet.”

Torben Funder-Kristensen, chef for PA i Danfoss Cooling, der er partner i CITIES.

Kogebog og beregningsmodeller

CITIES arbejder i forvejen med energioptimering og data i supermarkeder, og i relation til CITIES har Danfoss sammen med flere andre CITIES-partnere og eksterne partnere netop afsluttet projektet Super Supermarkets, hvor man har testet ovenstående udnyttelse af overskudsvarmen.

Erfaringerne i projektet er så gode, at det er mundet ud i en kogebog for, hvordan supermarkeder kan gribe det an fra a til z, hvis de vil i gang – samt to beregningsmetoder, der kan vise, om det kan betale sig at installere et anlæg, så man udnytter overskudvarmen. 

Det koster selvfølgelig penge at installere anlæg, der gør det muligt at udnytte overskudsvarmen. Men erfaringerne viser, at anlæggene vil være tilbagebetalt inden for tre år.

“Der blæser nye vinde over Danmark med en klimalov, der skal sikre, at Danmark har reduceret udledningen af drivhusgasser som CO2 med 70 procent i 2030 i forhold til 1990-tal. Derfor gælder det om at få fat i alt det, som vi kan få fat i, som fx overskudsvarmen i supermarkeder,” siger projektleder Lotte Gramkow fra CLEAN.

“Og det kan gøres enkelt. Vi har de tekniske løsninger. Vi har masser af fjernvarme i Danmark. Så det giver rigtig god mening at lade tingene gå hånd i hånd,” siger hun.

Artiklen fortsætter under grafikken

Grafik fra Super Supermarkets

Forskning der kan bruges af supermarkeder globalt

I Danmark giver det mening at tænke fjernvarmenettet ind, fordi fjernvarme er så udbredt. Men også i områder uden fjernvarme  giver det mere mening at bruge overskudsvarmen internt som opvarmning i supermarkederne.

“Vi ved, at EU vil prioritere fjernvarmen langt mere i fremtiden simpelthen, fordi det er meget effektivt. Op til 50 % af EU’s varme skal leveres via fjernvarmen, og det er en kæmpe mulighed for de decentrale store varmepumper og supermarkedsanlæg,” siger Torben Funder-Kristensen.

Alternativt kan overskudsvarmen gå til en varmepumpe i nærområdet i forbindelse med et slags energifælleskab fx industrisymbiose.

“Vi ved, at EU vil prioritere fjernvarmen langt mere i fremtiden simpelthen, fordi det er meget effektivt. Op til 50 % af EU’s varme skal leveres via fjernvarmen, og det er en kæmpe mulighed for de decentrale store varmepumper og supermarkedsanlæg.”

Torben Funder-Kristensen, chef for PA i Danfoss Cooling, der er partner i CITIES.

“I kroner og øre er det svært at give et præcist tal for, hvor stor gevinsten er, for det handler om butikkens størrelse og hvor effektivt køleanlægget kører i forvejen. Men en butik kan sagtens have varmeudgifter for 150.000 kroner, og den udgift slipper man for, hvis man udnytter overskudsvarmen internt,” siger Torben Funder-Kristensen.

Det har man fx set i et andet forsøg med et varmegenvindingsanlæg fra Danfoss i Superbrugsen i Augustenborg på Als. Anlægget betyder, at overskudsvarmen nu både varmer selve butikken op og sørger for varme til rengøring af butikkens slagterafdeling. Desuden leverer butikken varme til fjernvarmenettet svarende til varmeforbruget i cirka 15 standardhuse på årsbasis.

Ifølge Danfoss har det givet en besparelse på el og varme på cirka 90.000 kroner på årsbasis for butikken.

Masser af varme fra de kraftigt dimensionerede køleanlæg

Der produceres overskudsvarme i mange typer erhverv. Men lige netop supermarkeder er interessante i den sammenhæng.

“Der blæser nye vinde over Danmark med en klimalov, der skal sikre, at Danmark har reduceret udledningen af drivhusgasser som CO2 med 70 procent i 2030 i forhold til 1990-tal. Derfor gælder det om at få fat i alt det, som vi kan få fat i, som fx overskudsvarmen i supermarkeder.”

Projektleder Lotte Gramkow fra CLEAN.

I dag er supermarkedernes køleanlæg kraftigt dimensioneret, fordi man vil være sikker på at kunne holde fødevarerne kolde selv på de varmeste sommerdage.

Køleanlægget fungerer ligesom køleskabet hjemme, der har en varm og en kold side. Når man køler luften ned, tager man energien ud af luften. Energi kan ikke bare forsvinde, så i stedet havner det ofte på taget af supermarkedet. Samtidig varmer supermarkederne deres butik op med anden varme, fx naturgas.

Det optimale vil derfor være, at supermarkedet selv udnytter varmen til opvarmning af butikken og så sælger resten af varmen til fjernvarmeselskabet til en pris, de har forhandlet.

“Vi synes, at supermarkeder er et godt sted at høste overskudsvarme, fordi det måske er knap så kompliceret, som hvis man går ud i industrien og skal ind i industriproces fx med meget højere temperaturer. Her er det lettere at styre processerne,” siger Lotte Gramkow.

“Samtidig ligner kølesystemerne hinanden, uanset om det er i Coop-supermarkeder eller Salling Group-supermarkeder. Og eftersom der cirka er 2700 supermarkeder i Danmark, kan de udvalgte være rollemodeller,” mener hun.

Sådanne foregangsbutikker er der brug for, for det er svært for supermarkederne at gå ind på ’markedet’ for overskudsvarme, eftersom deres kernekompetence er at sælge varer – ikke overskudsvarme til fjernvarmenet.

Ny lovgivning på vej

I Super Supermarkets har man testet metoden i tre Coop-butikker og sammen med de tre lokale fjernvarmeselskaber i Kerteminde og Otterup på Fyn samt i Bjerringbro i Jylland.

Partnerne i Super Supermarkets mener, at den nye lov gør beskatningen af brugen af overskudsvarmen fornuftig, forklarer Torben Funder-Kristensen:

“Hidtil har det været dyrt at udnytte overskudsvarmen internt i virksomheden, fordi strømmen brugt i køleanlægget kører uden afgifter som processtrøm, mens der så er afgifter på varmen, hvis man vil udnytte den selv. Nu bliver afgifterne justeret, så man betragter alt varme som lavet af en varmepumpe med en COP på 3. “

“Det vil sige, at varmen divideret med 3 svarer til den strøm, som der skal svares varmepumpe-elafgift af. Til gengæld skal man ikke betale varmeafgift længere, og man kan køre sit anlæg optimalt i forhold til at producere varme og køle på samme tid. Så kan butikken få det bedste energiøkonomiske output anlægget,” siger han.

Det ventes, at loven bliver fulgt op af en anden lov, der også vil øge interessen hos supermarkeder for at sælge overskudsvarmen til fjernvarmenettet.

I dag bliver alle – både store og små virksomheder – betragtet som et varmeværk. Det betyder, at små supermarkeder vil skulle lave specialregnskaber og foretage en priseftervisning, der viser, at salgsprisen for varmen er korrekt prisfastsat. Det er alt for  kompliceret og resultatet er, at man ikke bruger denne mulighed i stor udstrækning endnu

Derfor er der flere gange været lagt op til at lave en minimumsgrænse for, hvor stort supermarkedet eller andre virksomheder skal være, før de skal lave specialregnskaber for salg af overskudsvarme. Ved det nuværende lovforslag er der ikke indført en minimumsgrænse.

“Vi håber godt nok, at vi er blevet hørt, og at der kommer en klar minimumsgrænse for fritagelse for priseftervisning og pris regulering for de små bidragsydere. Vi har 2700 supermarkeder i Danmark og selv om de ikke alle har muligheden i dag, så skal dem, som kan levere varme, have muligheden ved at forhandle en fornuftig pris med fjernvarmen – og så skal der ikke mere kompleksitet i det,” siger Torben Funder-Kristensen.

Fakta om Super Supermarkets

  • Projektet har fået 2,9 millioner kroner i støtte fra det Energiteknologiske Udviklings- og Demonstrationsprogram, EUDP.
  • 13 partnere: Danfoss A/S, COOP A.M.B.A., Dansk Fjernvarme (DFF), OK A.M.B.A., Teknologisk Institut (TI), Ivar Lykke Kristensen (ILK), Dansk Fjernvarmes Projektselskab (DFP), AK-Centralen (AK-C), KTH Royal Institute of Technology Stockholm (KTH), Gudenådalens Energiselskab, Fjernvarme Fyn, Kerteminde Forsyning, CLEAN (projektkoordinator)
  • Tre COOP supermarkeder i Ottestrup, Kerteminde og Bjerringbro har deltaget.
  • Der er i dag etableret varmegenvindingsanlæg ved cirka 150 butikker. Under 100 butikker leverer i dag overskudsvarme til fjernvarmenettet.
  • Partnerne i Super Supermarkets anslår, at der er potentiale for at udnytte overskudsvarmen internt og i fjernvarmenettet ved 2700 supermarkeder i Danmark.
  • Projektet har udarbejdet en kogebog, som kan hjælpe butikker med at komme i gang. Samtidigt har man udarbejdet to beregningsmodeller, som butikker kan bruge til at undersøge, om det kan svare sig at udnytte overskudsvarmen. Alle tre værktøjer ligger frit tilgængeligt på projektets hjemmeside.
  • Kilde: Super Supermarkets

OM CITIES – Center for IT Intelligente Energi Systemer

Danmark har et mål om et energisystem, der kører 100% på vedvarende energi i 2050 og en 70 procent reduktion af drivhusgasser i 2030. Danmarks største smart city-projekt, CITIES, forsker i løsninger, der støtter overgangen fra fossile brændstoffer til et moderne samfund, tilpasset bæredygtige energisystemer.

CITIES dækker over en bred vifte af forskningsaktiviteter, der letter fleksibiliteten i hele energisystemet ved at forske i effektive, integrerede og intelligent energiløsninger. Aktiviteterne i CITIES dækker alle aspekter af energisystemet, herunder el, gas, fjernvarme/køling og biomasse. Og vigtigst af alt forsker vi i metoder, der bygger på kunstig intelligens (AI) til at analysere store mængder data, så vi kan forudsige, kontrollere og optimere samspillet mellem energiformerne.

I CITIES medvirker otte danske og svenske byer og kommuner, 24 danske og svenske industrielle partnere samt 15 internationale videns-institutioner fra EU, Kina og USA. Projektet støttes af Innovationsfonden.

Læs også: http://smart-cities-centre.org/

The Danish Energy Agency will increase the use of meter data from buildings

The use of building data is one of the paths to the green transition, and data and digitization can reduce costs and create new potentials for efficiency improvements. At the same time, there are already good solutions in the market.

These were the main conclusions when the Danish Energy Agency, during the C40 World Mayors Summit in Copenhagen in October, held a workshop with Energy Forum, Intelligent Energi and Gate 21 on the use of building data.

The Danish Energy Agency is working on creating a platform – an energy and building atlas that will promote data-based knowledge of buildings. At the workshop, up to 100 participants from universities, interest groups, building owners such as housing companies and municipalities, as well as utilities, gave their views on the platform.

Centre leader at CITIES Professor Henrik Madsen was invited to talk about some of the solutions that have been developed through CITIES and other related smart city projects to collect and analyze just building data.

“I consider the ideas of a new Energiatlas, as suggested by the Danish Energy Agency, as a very interesting step forward”, he says.

“I believe that we will be able to see a lot of synergy between Center Denmark, which will provide methods related to real-time data, and the Energiatlas, which could contain information on the actual energy performance of buildings, as obtained digitally by the processing of real-time data at Center Denmark”, he says.

Use AI as an X-ray

Henrik Madsen’s message at the workshop and in general is that it is important to move away from table-based methods for energy savings and energy renovations and over to evidence-based methods.

Table-based means that, for example, energy labels are drawn up of dwellings that are based on drawings of the house rather than on data based on reality.

Henrik Madsen and his DTU colleagues and partners for smart city projects have developed and demonstrated methods that work with a kind of X-ray vision with the help of AI. Here, algorithms chew through data for a building and see how it performs – how good the climate screen is – (e.g., the insulation of the exterior wall, doors and windows) and at the same time can sort the energy consumption from the way the occupants or users act.

FED – Flexibility Energy Denmark

At the workshop, Henrik Madsen also mentioned the new national research and testing centre for energy technologies for green transition Center Denmark, which also contains a data lake.

Through the associated project, FED – Flexibility Energy Denmark – the partners (including many partners from CITIES) collect data through living labs and send data into the data lake.

The researchers at the FED can then analyze data and develop solutions that companies can work on for actual products. Through the FED, you will see how you can create flexibility in the electricity grid, change consumption habits and store energy virtually. For example, through district heating or by heating swimming pools at times when there is plenty of wind turbine power in the grid and where there is little electricity consumption in society in general.

At the workshop of the Danish Energy Agency, Henrik Madsen also pointed out the need to change the framework conditions to promote the green transition.

Today, there is virtually no economic reason to shift consumption to periods when there is excess green energy in the electricity grid. CITIES has taken up this issue in a note ‘Energiafgifter for fremtiden’ received by both the Danish Energy Agency and the Danish Parliament.

DTU Compute

A district heating workshop provides three ideas for using measurements and data

Through CITIES, district heating companies will continue to work with the ideas based on concrete challenges and thoughts of increased digitalisation.

Danish:

Fjernvarme-workshop giver tre ideer til brug af målinger og data
Gennem CITIES vil fjernevarmeselskaber arbejde videre med ideer, der tager afsat i konkrete udfordringer og tanker om øget digitalisering.

En lille flok fjernvarmefolk fra Fjernvarme Fyn, Hvide Sande Fjernvarme, HOFOR, Aarhus Maskinmesterskole og Grøn Energi/Dansk Fjernvarme stak for nyligt hovederne sammen for at udtænke forslag til at skabe værdi i fjernvarmesystemerne ved hjælp af målinger og data.

Forslagene afspejlede både kvantitative løsninger, som kan spare energi og kvalitative løsninger, der fokuserer på at uddanne fremtidens værdikæde til at bruge databaserede input.

Fjernvarmefolkenes hverdag er vidt forskellig. Alligevel fandt de frem til tre konkrete ideer, som nu vil blive konkretiseret for at se om ét eller flere af dem kan udføres inden for rammerne af CITIES-projektet.

Ideerne kredser om, hvordan data kan bruges ved indregulering af anlæg, hvordan data kan kobles sammen med andre data, og endelig hvordan man let kan overvåge data live.

Adam Brun, forretningsudvikler på Aarhus Maskinmesterskole, tidligere AffaldVarme Aarhus, ridser ideerne op. Foto: Hanne Kokkegård

Data bruges ikke optimalt i dag

Fjernvarmeselskaberne har naturligvis gang i digitaliseringen, men de bruger hverken løsningerne eller data optimalt, erkendte fjernvarmefolkene.

Samtidig bruges data på forskellige måder rundt om i landet, fordi behovene ofte er vidt forskellige om man er et stort fjernvarmeselskab eller et mindre. Samtidig er der en tradition for nogle steder, at selve driften mest køres via sund fornuft, regneark og erfaring.

Netop derfor var workshoppen i Fjernvarmens Hus tænkt som helt uformel, og der var gode og livlige diskussioner, siger chefanalytiker i Grøn Energi, Nina Detlefsen, der var arrangør af workshoppen:

“Fordelen ved at holde en workshop med få deltagere, som virkelig er interesseret i emnet er, at disse deltagere får plads til at fortælle om deres udfordringer. Når projekter og ideer kommer med afsæt i deres egne meget jordnære problemer, tager deltagerne typiske mere ejerskab efterfølgende.”

“Netop dette ejerskab for opgaverne er vigtig, for at de også vil prioritere ressourcer, og at der faktisk sker noget fysisk på værket,” uddyber hun.

Når man har lagt sig fast på, hvilke af de tre ideer, som man går videre med, vil projekterne være  åbne for alle CITIES-partnerne.


Øverst fra venstre Adam Brun, forretningsudvikler på Aarhus Maskinmesterskole tidl. AffaldVarme Aarhus; Nina Detlefsen, chefanalytiker hos Grøn Energi; plan- og projektdirektør hos Fjernvarme Fyn Peer Andersen. Nederste række fra venstre: Per Sieverts Nielsen, seniorforsker ved DTU Management; Christian Holmstedt Hansen, analytiker hos Grøn Energi; Christian Holmstedt Hansen, analytiker hos Grøn Energi; Martin Halkjær Kristensen, driftsleder hos Hvide Sande Fjernvarme samt Kristian Honoré, energiplanlægger hos HOFOR. Foto: Hanne Kokkegård

 

New tool for simulating occupancy profiles for private households

ProccS.org is a tool for simulating occupancy profiles for private households. The application creates occupancy profiles for bathroom, kitchen, living room and bedrooms. The profiles can be downloaded in csv-format. The underlying model is based on a inhomogeneous Markov chain. It was trained on time-use data of Danish households from 2008/2009.

Sebastian Wolf has developed the online-tool ProccS during his PhD.

Ajour 2019: Energy taxes must reflect CO2 emissions

The government’s more ambitious targets for CO2 reductions require new technologies, but also a new tax structure that will serve as an incentive to use types of energy with the lowest CO2 emissions.

For technology, the green transition cannot do without the right policy – and vice versa. This is the message in the presentation that Professor Henrik Madsen, DTU Compute, will give at Ajour 2019 – the Danish Engineers´ Association’s annual trade fair. (Maskinmesternes Forening.)

In Ajourmagasinet Henrik Madsen tells more about his upcoming presentation ‘Intelligent energy – an acceleration of the green transition through digitalisation’. The presentation is based, among other things, on a memo that a CITIES task force has recently send to the Danish Energy Agency and politicians on how dynamic CO2 taxes can support the green transition.

Read the article (Danish version) in Ajourmagasinet here.

Read the note ‘Energy Taxes for the Future’ (Danish version) here

Here you can read more about Ajour 2019, which takes place on Thursday, November 28 and Friday, November 29 at the Odense Congress Center.

Henrik Madsen, Professor at DTU Compute and centre Director of CITIES Photo: Hanne Kokkegård

CAN DISTRICT HEATING BE SELF-LEARNING?

GATE21 AND HOFOR will be leading a demonstration on self-learning data-intelligent district heating systems which is built on the tools developed in CITIES

The IDASC project aims to collect and disseminate experiences about opportunities surrounding the self-learning systems.

As part of the project, IDASC will test different models for using more real-time data in district heating, meaning senior executives, decision-makers and politicians involved in district heating can be given the best possible conditions for assessing its potential. This includes technical advantages and economic savings, as well as its CO2 reduction potential.

HOFOR – Greater Copenhagen Utility is the test partner for the project, testing a district heating network serving 25 apartment buildings. Here, a method will be developed to use smart meters from district heating customers for data-driven temperature optimization. The trial period will begin with the start of the 2019 heating season.

Read more in the pdf

Renewable Energy Forecasting Summer School, Rio de Janeiro, July 2020

Henrik Madsen, center director of CITIES and professor at DTU Compute, is invited to Rio de Janeiro in Brazil from 4-5 July 2020 to hold: Renewable Energy Forecasting Summer School.

The IIF Summer School is a two-day course which provides in-depth analysis of a cutting edge topic in forecasting from one of the International Symposium on Forecasting (ISF) invited speakers. The Summer School typically shares the same venue as the ISF.

Renewable Energy Forecasting – Theory and Practice

Today, on average, roughly 50 per cent of the electricity in Denmark is generated as wind and solar power. Wind power alone accounts for around 44 per cent of the electricity load, but this is highly fluctuating. Denmark has hours with almost no wind but also experiences periods with up to 140 per cent of the electricity load. Therefore, forecasting is crucial in order to operate the energy systems including the electricity grid. Prof. Madsen and his collaborators are responsible for the methods used, eg. in Denmark, by both transmission system operators and low voltage operators.

Through a combination of lectures and lab sessions, this course will provide an introduction to methods and tools used for forecasting wind and solar power generation. We will touch upon how the forecasts are used in the daily operation of the power system. For the lab session, R software packages will be used. The topics covered are:

  • Point forecasts and probabilistic forecasts
  • Use of meteorological (MET) forecasts
  • Simple parametric models for forecasting (Box-Jenkins, SARIMA, Holt-Winter, Neural Networks, AI, Hidden Markov, Regime based models)
  • Non- and Semi-parametric methods (Kernel, Spline, Local polynomial, and Varying coefficient based methods)
  • State spaces models in discrete and continuous time
  • Multivariate probabilistic forecasting
  • Methods for forecast evaluation
  • Spatio-temporal forecasting
  • Forecasting hierarchies
  • Combined forecasting (eg. for use of several MET providers)
  • Down- and upscaling
  • Adaptive forecasting
  • Generating forecasts for optimal decision making
  • Tools for wind and solar power forecasting

The course will also provide options for the best tool depending on the penetration level of the renewables and the setting in general.

Interested in attending Henrik Madsen’s summer school? Read more about the course in Rio here.

The power lines meander in the favela Vidigal on a hillside in Rio de Janeiro. Photo: Hanne Kokkegård

Documents from 100% CLIMATE NEUTRALITY, Sonderborg – videos and pdf

The CITIES project had its own track at the conference 100% Climate Neutrality in Sonderborg, Denmark on October 2019. Here you can listen to the videos and follow the presentations in the pdf.

Programme

VIDEO: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sy2s1yaRU0Q

PDF: Henrik Madsen, DTU:​ Introduction to CITIES AGM – update

VIDEO: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MX8F8GW7Ink

PDF:  Annemie Wyckmans, NTNU: ​CityxChange

VIDEO: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BVHf-xa1DBI

PDF: Kristina Bozhkova, Project Zero: ​SmartEnCity

VIDEO: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Me5MKpu4IS0

PDF: Louise Krog Jensen, AAU:​ Challenges and Opportunities of Implementing 100% Renewable Energy in Cities

VIDEO: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aFxpBrdesaA

PDF: Anders Andersen, EMD:​ ​Optimization of private wire operation of wind production and district energy in Hvide Sande

VIDEO: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6zySv_et5M0

PDF: Nina Detlefsen, DFF:​ District heating – the key to a smart integrated energy system

VIDEO: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BdlumhIHdt4&t=3s

PDF: Firming Renewable Power with Demand Response:- An End-to-end Aggregator Business Model

VIDEO: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yH1FtHWqTMw&t=1S

PDF: John Bagterp Jørgensen, DTU: Model Predictive Control for Smart-Energy Homes

VIDEO: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q-ARoGjQ9PU

PDF:  Christian von Scholten, NorthQ:​ Solutions for data driven buildings

VIDEO: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lCMnKg5YM48

PDF: Benjamin Kroposki, NREL:​ Integrated Energy Systems at Scale – Enabling more Renewable Energy  

VIDEO: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WOH63ulj2sY

PDF:  Gerhard Zucker, AIT: ​Digital Building Twins – What we can learn from industry

VIDEO: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JUe8r_OOQlU

PDF: The Building as Cornerstone of our Future Energy System

VIDEO: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VFg65_czsRM

PDF: Magnus Hindsberger, Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO): Preparing for a step change: Challenges of a fast transformation to a renewable future

Søren Skov Bording: Center Denmark

VIDEO: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wg1KJyShzpo

PDF: Introduction to Center Denmark

PDF: Henrik Madsen, DTU: Accelerating the green transition using the flexibility of buildings

No video

Documents: WORKSHOP ON PV-THERMAL SYSTEMS

Kgs. Lyngby, Denmark – October 9, 2019. Hosted by IEA TASK 60 and CITIES

Programme for the PVT workshop

Part 1

Jean-Christophe Hadorn, Switzerland:
PVT systems – an introduction to the technology and Task 60
Thomas Ramschak, AEE, Austria:
Solar Heat Worldwide – PVT market analysis
Korbinian Kramer, Fraunhofer ISE, Germany:
PVT – Challenges for and by Certification for a well organized market penetration
Daniel Zenhäusern SPF, Switzerland:
Key Performance Indicators for PVT Systems
Dr. Korbinian Kramer, and Sebastian Helmling, Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE:
Initiative for market establishment and market penetration of PVT- heat pump heating systems

Part 2

Svend Erik Mikkelsen, COWI, Denmark:
Market potential for PVT, COWI
Niels Radisch, Rambøll, Denmark:
Light weight BI-PVT and ground heat pump
Peder Bacher, DTU Compute, Denmark:
Smart control of energy systems with PVT
Mark Dannemand, DTU Civil engineering, Denmark:
Research projects within PVT at Technical University of Denmark

Part 3 – Presentation of PVT collector manufactures

Dual Sun, Laetitia Brottier, France:
PVT an interesting option for the Nordic climates. Examples of installations with DualSun
Abora, Marta Cañada, Spain:
ABORA CONTRIBUTION – TO TASK 60
Sunovate, Glen Ryan, Australia:
INNOVATING SOLAR. Using PV’s for renewable heat and electricity